Draft Pick Trades and Goals Versus Threshold

                    Since this is a prospect blog I'm going to look at trades that specifically affect the draft, i.e. draft picks. I am going to look at trades that are just draft picks for a player. I am going to evaluate these trades based on the catch all stat goals versus threshold (GVT). This is a stat very similar to wins above replacement (WAR) in baseball. I know it is not the perfect stat no stat is but I feel GVT does a decent job of evaluating everything.  To learn more on GVT the hockey prospectus glossary is a great place to start.

The first thing we need to know is what draft picks are worth in terms of GVT. This is difficult to answer as we do not know what players will be selected with each pick.  Iain Fyffe did a piece on this back in 2011. He came up with this formula:

v = (4.1 x (200 – d) / 210) + (20 x .7 ^ .9d)

Where v is the estimated peak GVT of the pick (peak GVT is defined as the player's GVT in the best five of 10 seasons after his draft year, on a per-82-game basis) and d is the number of the pick (#1 overall is 1, #25th overall is 25 etc).

I used this formula to calculate the GVT value of every pick.  From there I averaged the value of each pick to a general idea for a pick in each round. I spilt up the first round into two halves as there is a significant drop from the top 15 picks to the bottom 15. From there I used “hockey 3-1-1 rule” which states that 3 goals (scored or prevented) gives you 1 point in the standings and costs 1 million dollars.  

Round	Average Peak GVT	“3-1-1” ($M)
Pick 1-10	7.24	$2.41
Pick 15-30	3.48	$1.16
Round 2	3.02	$1.00
Round 3	2.43	$0.81
Round 4	1.80	$0.62
Round 5	1.26	$0.42
Round 6	0.67	$0.22
Round 7	0.09	$0.02

To evaluate players you need to look at what they are going to do in the future not what they have done for their previous team. In order to do that I am simply going to calculate each players GVT per-game and extrapolate it out over the remaining games for the player’s new team. I know this is not the best way to do this as a number of factors in play, but I feel it’s a good quick way to get a decent idea of what to expect from players going forward.

*Goalie Trades have been removed due to the uncertainty of projecting games played*

Player	New Team	Expected GVT	Draft Picks	Old Team	Value of Picks	Difference
Mike Weaver	Canadians	-0.07	5th round (2015)	Panthers	1.26	-1.33
Dustin Penner	Capitals	2.86	4th round (2014)	Ducks	1.80	1.06
Stephane Robidas	Ducks	2.00	4th round (2014)	Stars	1.80	0.2
David Rundblad Mathieu Brisebois	Blackhawks	-1.90*	2nd round (2014)	Coyotes	3.02	-4.92
Ales Hemsky	Senators	0.739	5th round (2014) 3rd round (2015)	Oilers	3.69	-2.95
Marcel Goc	Penguins	1.00	5th round (2014) 3rd round (2015)	Florida	3.69	-2.69
Nick Schultz	Blue Jackets	0	5th round (2014)	Oilers	1.26	-1.26
Raphael Diaz	Rangers	1	5th round (2014)	Vancouver	1.26	-0.26
Andrej Meszaros	Bruins	2.93	3rd round (2014)	Flyers	2.34	0.59

At first glance many of these trades look like negatives but remember the value of the picks is over 82 games. The value the players are providing is over the remainder of the season, which for most teams is about 20 games. The clear winners here are the Capitals, Ducks, and Bruins, as they have a chance to get more value from their players over 20 games than the pick would be expected to provide over a whole season. If we break this chart down to GVT per game we get the following:   

Player	New Team	GVT/Game	Draft Picks	Old Team	Value of Picks/Game	Difference
Mike Weaver	Canadians	-0.004	5th round (2015)	Panthers	0.015	-0.019
Dustin Penner	Capitals	0.143	4th round (2014)	Ducks	0.021	0.122
Stephane Robidas	Ducks	0.10	4th round (2014)	Stars	0.021	0.079
David Rundblad Mathieu Brisebois	Blackhawks	-0.10*	2nd round (2014)	Coyotes	0.037	-0.137
Ales Hemsky	Senators	0.039	5th round (2014) 3rd round (2015)	Oilers	0.044	-0.005
Marcel Goc	Penguins	0.048	5th round (2014) 3rd round (2015)	Florida	0.044	0.004
Nick Schultz	Blue Jackets	0	5th round (2014)	Oilers	0.015	-0.015
Raphael Diaz	Rangers	0.05	5th round (2014)	Vancouver	0.015	0.035
Andrej Meszaros	Bruins	0.139	3rd round (2014)	Flyers	0.029	0.11

*Rundblad’s GVT value only

This makes all the trades look much better. The thing to take away from these two charts is that draft picks have very little value. They are worth the gamble for the selling team as the other option is losing the player for nothing in free agency.  As a contender looking to make the playoffs they need all the additional value they can get to make that playoff run. These charts show that they should not let draft picks hold them back from improving their team.

I plan to look back at these trades when the season is over and see how close the expected value matches up with the actual value provided. Then we can officially see how much value each team paid for.

Comments are appreciated and encouraged. I appreciate the feedback. Thanks.