Top 20 for the 2015 NHL Draft

I have decided to double my output from the previous two draft rankings bringing you my top 20 players for the 2015 draft. I chose to include more players as I want to cover as many players as possible over the course of the season. I understand more player’s means more reading which can get time consuming. I tried to structure this in a way that you can read it in parts and come back to it if necessary.

Sonny Milano CHL vs. NCAA

As you may know Sonny Milano, Columbus’ first round pick this past draft, has decided to play in the CHL for the Plymouth Whalers, foregoing the chance to play for Boston College in the NCAA. I'm not here to discuss what option is better for development of the player. That is a very difficult question to answer. Players have failed and succeeded going each route. What I want to look at is the effect it has on the NHL team.

The biggest positive for the Blue Jackets is that they are now able to start contract talks and hopefully get Milano signed to an entry level deal soon. As of this writing talks have begun but nothing official has been signed yet. 

That may not seem like such a big deal but consider this, Columbus now controls Sonny’s rights for three full NHL seasons. What I mean by that is now Milano has basically given away his negotiation power which a very good thing for the Blue Jackets. How entry level contracts (ELCs) work are based off of the age of when the player signs. Players 18-21 can be signed for 3 seasons, 22-23 year olds for 2 seasons, 24 year olds for 1 season and no restrictions on any player 25 years and older. The CHL allows players to stay in the league until their age 20 season. So Milano is only eligible to play two more seasons in Plymouth. When his age 20 season is over his only option to continue to play a high level of hockey is to sign with the Blue Jackets. The Jackets have all the leverage in this situation. They also are able to avoid the situation that happened in Calgary with Johnny Gaudreau.

Calgary’s situation with Gaudreau is one teams hope to avoid. Gaudreau was Calgary’s fourth round pick in 2011. He was drafted out of the USHL and then went to play three seasons at Boston College. He signed his entry level deal with the Flames this year when his season at BC was over. He made his NHL debut on the last day of the season for the Flames. That one game burned a whole year off of his ELC. Calgary now only controls his rights for two more seasons.

Gaudreau used that one game as serious negotiation leverage with the Flames. Essentially he wanted to play in the NHL or he would leave for another team. Calgary was able to avoid what happened with Chicago and Kevin Hayes. I expect Hayes did a similar thing to Gaudreau and said play me in the NHL or I walk, and Chicago held their ground and he left, signing with the Rangers this off-season.

This option isn’t really a bad one for the players. Essentially, Hayes was an unrestricted free agent; he took away the one thing the NHL does to keep salaries down. He was able to talk to 29 other teams rather than just the Blackhawks. From an economic standpoint that’s the only reason the draft exists, to limit the negotiation power of players to keep salaries down.

Salaries are other side of this coin. Not only did Calgary lose a year of control with Gaudreau they also had to pay a higher price to sign him. Gaudreau signed for the maximum rookie salary of $925,000, and received a performance bonus of $925,000 bringing the average annual value (AAV) of his deal to $1,850,000. From my understanding the AAV counts against the cap. I haven’t researched this but I would expect that, Gaudreau’s AAV is the one of the highest for a 4^th round pick and much higher than a fourth round pick from the CHL. However Calgary likely got a good deal, had Gaudreau become a free agent he would have received significantly more.  

I have a hunch that players who go the NCAA route on average make more on their ELCs than players who go the CHL route, because of the possibility of becoming unrestricted. Take for example Justin Schultz.

Schultz was a second round pick of the Ducks in 2008. He played one additional season in BCHL after being drafted then played three seasons at the University of Wisconsin. He chose not to sign with the Ducks opting to head to the open market where he signed his ELC with Edmonton. He received the maximum rookie salary of $925,000 but also included in that deal was $2,850,000 in performance bonuses, bringing the total salary to $3,775,000. Taking a look at few notable players from that second round; Slava Voynov, Roman Josi, Derek Stepan and Travis Hamonic, not one signed for more than a million dollars. These are obviously cherry picked examples, but it’s clear Schultz’s deal is the exception not the norm. I plan to do more research this further to see if my hunch is correct.

For comparison Hayes signed with the Rangers for two seasons at a comparable rate to Schultz; $3,750,000.

Bringing this back to Columbus and Milano, they avoid all this potential mess. Columbus does not have to worry about Milano getting anywhere near unrestricted status, thus limiting his salary significantly. I would expect Milano to sign a deal similar to other players of his draft stature (16^th overall selection). The average ELC AAV of the 16^th overall selection from 2005-2013 was $1,301,563, ranging from Colton Gillies on the low end ($1,041,667) to Vladimir Tarasenko on the high end ($1,750,000).  

Jarmo Kekalainen and the Blue Jackets front office should be very excited that Sonny Milano chose the CHL over the NCAA. They are able to negotiate with Milano and likely will get him signed sooner rather than later. They will be able to control his rights for three seasons at a price much lower than would be expected of an NCAA player. If Milano reaches his potential and becomes the player people expect, he would provide a surplus of value to the Blue Jackets. So while the decision to forgo Boston College and play for the Plymouth Whalers may not make much of a difference for the development of Milano, it has a HUGE impact on the future of the Columbus Blue Jackets.

Stats and information from hockeydb.com. All contract information from capgeek.com.  

The Future Isn’t Always Brighter

It’s quite clear that Philadelphia needs help on defence. This has been their issue as a team for a while now. Having lost Kimmo Timonen for a significant period of time doesn’t help, also employing Andrew Macdonald who is one of the worst defenders in the league, doesn’t help either.

The typical cliché is always the future looks bright, and I can see why fans in Philadelphia would think that way. In the previous two drafts it was clear that Paul Holmgren and Ron Hextall put an emphasis on selecting defencemen.  The Flyers selected seven defencemen with their 12 picks in the last two seasons, including three of four in round one and two. It’s those selections that I want to focus on in this post, notably the first round selections: Travis Sanheim and Samuel Morin.

Fear Fin aka Derek Tanabe (@fearthefin) said it the best on the Logoff Podcast, the Flyers “seem to be trying to find the next Chris Pronger.” While there is nothing wrong with that idea, the problem is I'm not sure Flyers understand what Pronger was as a junior player. He was a point producing guy who likely played the toughest competition and was someone people knew about. Taking a look at Sanhiem and Morin I'm not either one of them do any of those things.

Inability to create offence

Chris Pronger played two seasons in the CHL for the Peterborough Petes. In those two seasons he put up 62 points in 63 games and 77 points in 61 games respectively. He quite obviously had offensive talents.

Sanheim has only the one season in the WHL in which he put up 29 points in 67 games (0.43ppg). Morin has three seasons in the QMJHL. His first season he had just 8 points in 62 games (0.13ppg), his second/draft season he had 16 points in 46 games (0.35ppg) and his third season he had 31 points in 54 games (0.57ppg).  

Both players fall below the 0.6 “rule” but that doesn’t necessarily mean instant failure. In a follow up post to his one on CHL defencemen, Rhys posted this graph, breaking down the defencemen by draft position and by scorers or non-scorers.

Sanheim and Morin both fall into the non-scorers section. As top 25 picks they have about a 41% chance of becoming NHL regulars. While better to pick a scorer early, non-scorers aren’t totally doomed if picked high.

Quality of Competition

The big reason why I believe non-scorers make it is because of quality of competition. The non-scorers are likely the guys playing the tough competition causing point totals to be lower. With that being said QOC is not perfect. Just because one player plays tougher competition doesn’t mean he's a good player and just because a player plays poor competition it doesn’t mean he's a bad player. What I interpret it as, especially at the CHL level, is how much trust or faith the coach has in the player. Coaches are not stupid. They know what guys can handle the tough minutes and what players need sheltering.

I would expect Sanheim, and Morin, given their reputations as defensive defencemen they would be the ones that their respective teams relied upon to handle the tough minutes. That would at least partially explain the low point totals. I also expect both players to be a major part of their respective team’s penalty kill units rather than their power-play units, another factor which would deflate offense.  

Muneeb Alam of Jaspers Rink has done some excellent work using the method laid out by Eric Tulsky (recently hired by unidentified NHL team), to estimate quality of competition and time on ice for CHL players. He has data from the 2010-11 to 2013-14 seasons, which conveniently covers Sanheim’s and Morin’s CHL careers.  

The data is divided into sections based on opposing forwards and defenders. The size of the bubble indicates estimated time one ice and colour represents position (blue for forwards, yellow for defencemen). The data is very noisy which is why the numbers are not as important but rather the order of the players. That is why I am only going to use these on a team by team basis rather than by leagues and across leagues.

For a complete explanation on this check out Muneeb’s post.  

*Data is for even strength only*

Morin 2011-2012

Small circle indicates low time on ice and appears to be the 6^th defender in terms of competition level. Not surprising as a rookie it’s expected that he will need time to adjustment.

Morin 2012-2013 (Draft Season)

Larger circle indicating he received more ice time.  It looks like he played the fourth toughest competition, likely on the second pair.

Morin 2013-2014

Again playing fourth toughest competition, but looks to have a circle at a comparable level to the other three, could be the top pair defencemen here but it’s not clear looking at this graph.

Luckily Extraskater.com has CHL data for the 2013-2014 season, and it can help shed some light on this situation. Looking at their numbers Morin did indeed face the fourth toughest competition; they also estimate Morin to have played the most minutes at even strength among Rimouski defencemen.

On the special teams’ area of the game, Extraskater estimated that Morin was one the three primary defencemen used on the power-play for Rimouski, Morin however was the least used of the three. On the penalty kill, an area that Morin should be expect to be see heavy use, he was not one of the three heavily used defencemen. He was a distant fourth which to me looks like he received second unit penalty kill time at 4-5 and minimal time at 3-5.  

Sanheim 2013-2014 (Draft Season)

Sanheim has only played one season in the WHL. From the graph it looks like he played some of the weakest competition on the Hitman. His TOI looks similar to the others maybe a tad smaller but not by much.

Taking a look at Extraskaters page for Hitman defencemen shows that Sanheim did indeed play some of the weakest competition on the team as he ranked 6^th among Hitman defencemen who played at least 36 games. He also is estimated to have played the fewest minutes at even strength meaning he was likely a third pair guy.

On special teams Sanheim appears to have received second unit power-play time. On the penalty kill, an area we would expect him to get a ton of ice time, he received the lowest amount of time among the d-core.

Coming from Obscurity                                                                                                                                

Pronger was on the CHL all-rookie team his first season and followed that up being the CHL’s best defencemen in his second. It’s clear he was a player people knew about.

Sanheim and Morin took different routes in becoming first round picks. Looking at Central Scouting’s reports they had Sanheim ranked as 167^th North American skater in their mid-term report. In their final ranking he had shot up all the way to 53^rd before being ultimately drafted at 17. Morin had a similar rise but not quite as substantial as Sanheim. Morin ranked 76^th in Central Scouting 2013 mid-term report, and climbed 53 spots up to 23^rd in the final ranking. He of course ended up being selected at 11.  

Sanheim’s rise is understandable as he was a relative unknown entering his first WHL season. What was talked about the most for his rise in the rankings was his huge performance at the Under 18’s where he put up 6 points in 7 games and was regarded as Canada’s best defencemen. That capped off what was a great second half for Sanheim, take a look as his season splits.

September-December (32 games) 

1 goal 7 assists 8 points (0.25 ppg)

January-March (35 games) 

4 goals 17 assists 21 points (0.6 ppg)   

Morin’s rise is a little bit more unexpected. He missed the final month of his draft season with an upper body injury. Injuries usually tend to drop players in rankings. He also didn’t have the greatest Under 18 tournament only putting up two points in seven games. What likely caught people’s attention was his play in the playoffs. Morin had seven points in six games as Rimouski lost to Gatineau.

Players obviously shouldn’t be judged on small samples like short tournaments and playoff series’ but it does happen. That is why I view Sanheim’s rise as more legitimate as he had shown at least a half season of solid performance, which again isn’t the largest of samples but it is better than a six game playoff series.  

Conclusion

Neither Travis Sanheim nor Samuel Morin are going to be the next Chris Pronger for the Flyers. They don’t have the offensive production that you see from future NHL players. Both received second unit power-play time, so the opportunity to put up points was there.  Neither played the toughest competition on their respective teams. This particularly key for Morin as he is in his third year in the QMJHL, he has had time to learn the league and the players. He should be guy who plays the tough minutes. Sanheim gets a bit of a break as he was a WHL rookie who needed some time to get adjusted to the new league. Neither player had much opportunity on the penalty kill which is surprising seeing as both have the reputation of being shutdown defensive defencemen. 

At their current rate I don’t either player is going to have much of an impact in the NHL without a significant adjustment. Both are going to have to prove they can handle the toughest minutes in junior, as well as be the go to guys on the penalty kill. It would also be helpful if they could take advantage of their power play time and put up some more points. They need to show that they can play at both ends of the ice. Until then though I don’t think either player has much of an NHL future.

Stats from Extraskater.com, theQMJHL.ca, WHL.ca, hockeydb.com, eliteprospects.com

Quick Scout – Canada vs Czech Republic x2

In the final game of the Summer Development Camp, Team Canada had their first loss, losing to the Czechs 5-2. This game was very entertaining and did not have the feel of a summer exhibition game.   

Scoring Chances

Domi – Petan – Chase 0-1-1

Ritchie – McDavid – Point 0-2-0

Klimchuk – Fabbri – Nastasiuk 0-4-0

Bennett – Horvat – Perlini 2-1-0

Bigras – Heatherington 1-0

Harpur – Bowey 0-0

Sanheim – Mori n 0-0

Conner McDavid and Robbi Fabbi were incredible in this game. Combined they had six of Canada’s 12 chances at even strength. It was clear they were the guys the coaches wanted out there as they were playing basically every third shift in the second period. They both displayed their excellent skill level and great speed. Unfortunately early in the third Fabbri was hit hard at the blueline buy Czech defender Marek Baranek, which knocked him out of the game. After that hit the game really took a turn for the worse as Canada seemed much more intent on getting back at the Czechs for that hit rather than try to come back from the 5-2 deficit.

Canada had 79 penalty minutes in this game coming on 22 infractions. They gave the Czechs 11 power plays in this game, with most coming in the third period. Nick Ritchie and Max Domi were the most aggressive in the period, as both received 10 minute misconducts for checks to the head. It was good to see the intensity especially in a game in August and luckily none of the players went too far as the IIHF can suspend players from summer games.

Canada wrapped up the development camp going 3-1 in four games. This camp didn’t change much for me in terms of who I think should make the team. I still like the roster I posted last week. Obviously things can change throughout the course of the season depending on who makes the NHL and who plays well/poor for their CHL clubs. If this camp is any indication of what to expect, December can’t come soon enough.   

Quick Scout – Canada vs Russia x2

In this the third game of camp, Team Canada again picked up a victory defeating the Russians, this time by a score of 6-3. Canada was not as dominate in this game as they had been previously. The first period was very tight as Russia did a very good job clogging up the neutral zone, creating a ton of turnovers and preventing zone entries. The second period opened up and Canada began to take over scoring 3 goals in the frame. Russia controlled the third but that was largely due to score effects.

Scoring Chances

Sam Bennett – Sam Reinhart – Anthony Duclair     5-1-1-7

Nick Paul – Jason Dickenson – Jeremy Gregoire    2-1-1-4

Michael Dal Colle – Curtis Lazar – Nick Baptiste    1-1-0-2

Jayce Hawrlyuk – Frederik Gauthier – Greg Chase 0-0-1-1

Shea Theodore – Roland McKeown 0-0

Darnell Nurse – Haydn Fleury         0-0

Samuel Morin – Josh Morrissey      0-0

Take these line combinations with a grain of salt as they were shuffled as the game went along. Gauthier was hurt late in the first period and did not return. Darnell Nurse received a checking to the head penalty causing him to miss 10 minutes.  

For Canada I really liked what Sam Bennett and Curtis Lazar did in this game. Bennett struggled at the start taking two penalties in the first period, but settled down after that finishing the game with a team leading 6 chances. He showed off his impressive skill level that made him the fourth overall selection last June. Lazar had the big game putting up a hat-trick. He was heavily leaned on in this game, playing the PK as well as the PP. He handled numerous tough face-offs and was still able to drive play for Canada.

On defence Josh Morrissey had another solid game. Didn’t do anything too flashy but took shots when he had the chance, and did a good job in his own end.  

Ivan Barbashev was the best player in this game for the Russians. The St. Louis second rounder was able to create 5 chances and converted on his last one, showing off his quick release. His line was the one line that I noticed most often generating pressure in the Canadian zone.

Canada's final game tomorrow is an early one, taking on the Czechs at noon eastern. 

Quick Scout – Canada vs Russia

In the second game of the Summer Development Camp, Canada’s second squad defeated Russia 5-2. Canada controlled the play but not to the dominate fashion the first team did over the Czechs.  I again tracked scoring chances and split them up by line.  

Max Domi – Nic Petan – Nick Baptiste 2-0-0-2

Michael Dal Colle – Bo Horvat – Zach Nastasiuk 0-1-1-2

Nick Ritchie – Conner McDavid – Robby Fabbri  2-6-1-9

Morgan Klimchuk – Jeremy Gregoire – Brenden Perlinni  1-1-1-3

Chris Bigras – Madison Bowey 0-0

Shea Theodore – Dillon Heatherington 0-0

Travis Sanheim – Ben Harpur 0-0

For forwards I just included 5 on 5 play for defencemen I used both 5 on 5 and 4 on 4.

Conner McDavid was just sick in this game. Unbelievable skill level who was easily the best player on the ice for me in this game. Numerous times he showed off his great speed, blowing past the Russian defender and creating chances. Fabbri also was very impressive playing alongside Mcdavid. He did not look out of place skill wise playing with Mcdavid as he made a few nice one touch passes, setting up chances. Ritchie obviously doesn’t have the skill level of McDavid or Fabbri but was a great fit on that line. Ritchie used his size and physicality to muscle his way to the crease where he couldn’t be moved. From there he just had to wait for a pass.

The defencemen were not very involved in this game offensively as the forward lines did a good job driving play and creating chances. With that being said Madison Bowey stood out. He didn’t have any even strength chances but did have two on the power play. He wasn’t afraid to shoot the puck.

On the Russian side of things, Anatoli Golyshev lead the team with four chances at even strength. He always seemed to be around the net and getting good chances. Golyshev is a small player standing at just 5’9. That lack of size likely is a big reason why he has gone undrafted twice, despite being a point per game player in the MHL (KHL minor league). He also played 32 games in the KHL last season.

Canada’s first team will play these same Russians tomorrow night. 

Quick Scout – Canada vs Czech Republic

Canada took on the Czechs in their first summer game. Canada took home the easy victory defeating a tired Czech squad 6-2.  Canada dominated play having over 40 shots, and controlling possession for the majority of the time. I tracked scoring chances and split them up by line.  

Nick Ritchie – Sam Reinhart – Anthony Duclair...........1-1-2-4

Jason Dickenson – Curtis Lazar – Brayden Point.........0-1-2-3

Brenden Perlini – Sam Bennett – Jayce Hawryluk........1-1-2-4

Nick Paul – Frederik Gauthier – Greg Chase..............3-0-0-3

Josh Morrissey – Aaron Ekblad ........0-0-0

Darnell Nurse – Roland McKeown......1-0-1

Samual Morin – Haydn Fleury..........0-3-3

For forwards I just included 5 on 5 play for defencemen I used both 5 on 5 and 4 on 4.

The fourth line of Paul, Gauthier, and Chase had a good game create a ton of chances. I still don’t believe anyone from that line should make the team and this game does nothing to change that. 

I really liked what Haydn Fleury and Josh Morrissey did in this game from the back end. Fleury did a great job gaining the zone with possession of the puck and drove the net numerous times leading to those three chances. He was rewarded with a goal late in the game. Morrissey didn’t hit the score-sheet but his presence on the ice was still very noticeable. He had numerous shot attempts and also showed off his great skating also gaining the zone with control many times.

Anthony Duclair and Nick Paul stood out to me from the forward group. Duclair made a really nice pass finding Sam Reinhart for the first goal, then showed off his great skill scoring a really nice goal mid-way through the second. Paul as mentioned created a ton of chances at even strength, but also was able to create two additional chances short-handed. He along with Gauthier did a good job in this game killing penalties, and keeping the Czechs from getting set up. 

Canada's second team takes the ice tomorrow when they face Russia.