Sonny Milano CHL vs. NCAA

As you may know Sonny Milano, Columbus’ first round pick this past draft, has decided to play in the CHL for the Plymouth Whalers, foregoing the chance to play for Boston College in the NCAA. I'm not here to discuss what option is better for development of the player. That is a very difficult question to answer. Players have failed and succeeded going each route. What I want to look at is the effect it has on the NHL team.

The biggest positive for the Blue Jackets is that they are now able to start contract talks and hopefully get Milano signed to an entry level deal soon. As of this writing talks have begun but nothing official has been signed yet. 

That may not seem like such a big deal but consider this, Columbus now controls Sonny’s rights for three full NHL seasons. What I mean by that is now Milano has basically given away his negotiation power which a very good thing for the Blue Jackets. How entry level contracts (ELCs) work are based off of the age of when the player signs. Players 18-21 can be signed for 3 seasons, 22-23 year olds for 2 seasons, 24 year olds for 1 season and no restrictions on any player 25 years and older. The CHL allows players to stay in the league until their age 20 season. So Milano is only eligible to play two more seasons in Plymouth. When his age 20 season is over his only option to continue to play a high level of hockey is to sign with the Blue Jackets. The Jackets have all the leverage in this situation. They also are able to avoid the situation that happened in Calgary with Johnny Gaudreau.

Calgary’s situation with Gaudreau is one teams hope to avoid. Gaudreau was Calgary’s fourth round pick in 2011. He was drafted out of the USHL and then went to play three seasons at Boston College. He signed his entry level deal with the Flames this year when his season at BC was over. He made his NHL debut on the last day of the season for the Flames. That one game burned a whole year off of his ELC. Calgary now only controls his rights for two more seasons.

Gaudreau used that one game as serious negotiation leverage with the Flames. Essentially he wanted to play in the NHL or he would leave for another team. Calgary was able to avoid what happened with Chicago and Kevin Hayes. I expect Hayes did a similar thing to Gaudreau and said play me in the NHL or I walk, and Chicago held their ground and he left, signing with the Rangers this off-season.

This option isn’t really a bad one for the players. Essentially, Hayes was an unrestricted free agent; he took away the one thing the NHL does to keep salaries down. He was able to talk to 29 other teams rather than just the Blackhawks. From an economic standpoint that’s the only reason the draft exists, to limit the negotiation power of players to keep salaries down.

Salaries are other side of this coin. Not only did Calgary lose a year of control with Gaudreau they also had to pay a higher price to sign him. Gaudreau signed for the maximum rookie salary of $925,000, and received a performance bonus of $925,000 bringing the average annual value (AAV) of his deal to $1,850,000. From my understanding the AAV counts against the cap. I haven’t researched this but I would expect that, Gaudreau’s AAV is the one of the highest for a 4^th round pick and much higher than a fourth round pick from the CHL. However Calgary likely got a good deal, had Gaudreau become a free agent he would have received significantly more.  

I have a hunch that players who go the NCAA route on average make more on their ELCs than players who go the CHL route, because of the possibility of becoming unrestricted. Take for example Justin Schultz.

Schultz was a second round pick of the Ducks in 2008. He played one additional season in BCHL after being drafted then played three seasons at the University of Wisconsin. He chose not to sign with the Ducks opting to head to the open market where he signed his ELC with Edmonton. He received the maximum rookie salary of $925,000 but also included in that deal was $2,850,000 in performance bonuses, bringing the total salary to $3,775,000. Taking a look at few notable players from that second round; Slava Voynov, Roman Josi, Derek Stepan and Travis Hamonic, not one signed for more than a million dollars. These are obviously cherry picked examples, but it’s clear Schultz’s deal is the exception not the norm. I plan to do more research this further to see if my hunch is correct.

For comparison Hayes signed with the Rangers for two seasons at a comparable rate to Schultz; $3,750,000.

Bringing this back to Columbus and Milano, they avoid all this potential mess. Columbus does not have to worry about Milano getting anywhere near unrestricted status, thus limiting his salary significantly. I would expect Milano to sign a deal similar to other players of his draft stature (16^th overall selection). The average ELC AAV of the 16^th overall selection from 2005-2013 was $1,301,563, ranging from Colton Gillies on the low end ($1,041,667) to Vladimir Tarasenko on the high end ($1,750,000).  

Jarmo Kekalainen and the Blue Jackets front office should be very excited that Sonny Milano chose the CHL over the NCAA. They are able to negotiate with Milano and likely will get him signed sooner rather than later. They will be able to control his rights for three seasons at a price much lower than would be expected of an NCAA player. If Milano reaches his potential and becomes the player people expect, he would provide a surplus of value to the Blue Jackets. So while the decision to forgo Boston College and play for the Plymouth Whalers may not make much of a difference for the development of Milano, it has a HUGE impact on the future of the Columbus Blue Jackets.

Stats and information from hockeydb.com. All contract information from capgeek.com.