OHL Final Fancy Stats

Rather than continue with game recaps I decided to do a series recap and include some fancy stats that I can easily generate. I thought this would give us a good idea of if the better team won. From watching the games and recording the scoring chance data I would say yes the better team won. Guelph was dominate in game 3 and 4. 

In game 3 they had the scoring chance edge and shot edge but Jake Smith was up to the task. North Bay held a one goal lead late into the third period. Guelph needed some puck luck late with goals by Zack Mitchell and Brock McGinn to win that game. In game 4 basically the same thing happened however Smith was not going to have a spectacular performance again and Guelph won 10-1.  In game 5 much like in game three, Guelph needed two late goals this time both from Kerby Rychel to win the game and the series. Guelph advances to the Memorial Cup in London. Interesting about this run by Guelph is that they won every series in 5 games, a very dominating performance. With that here are the fancy stats for Guelph and 

North Bay.

Team	SF%	SH%	SV%	PDO	SCF%	GF%
North Bay	54%	14%	0.913	105	67%	65%
Guelph	46%	9%	0.864	95	33%	35%

Most of them are pretty straight forward. PDO is a luck basic metric which is an addition of shooting percentage (SH%) and save percentage (SV%). A team with normal luck will have a PDO of 100. Anything above or below that, the team has been lucky or unlucky. As you can see Guelph had the higher PDO, which attains to their high shooting percentage.

It’s clear from these numbers that the better team won this series. Guelph had the higher shot percentage (SF%) as well as generating more scoring chances (SCF%). They controlled the puck for the majority of this series. North Bay was in this series because of the excellent goal tending for Jake Smith, with the obvious exception of game 4.

Interesting to note, in winning the OHL, Guelph won every series four games to one. I am very excited to see how this team performs against the best in the Memorial Cup.

The Memorial Cup starts this Friday, May 16 with London taking on QMJHL champs Val d’Or.