This is the fifth installment of this series, if you are new
to the series and would like to catch up you can read them here: part 1-NCAA,
part 2- USHS, part 3- USHL, and part 4- US U-18.
We know from the great work done by Rhys of “That’s Offside” that
CHL defencemen picked in the first three rounds tend to be successful NHL
players if they score at a 0.6 point per game rate in junior. I decided to take
this one step further and see if this theory holds true for players picked in
the fourth round and on. I hypothesize that the 0.6 will hold up through rounds
4+. I expect there to be very few successes, with the majority of players being
in the bottom left of the graph. This is because the CHL is the most heavily
scouted league and any player who is any good is most likely gone by the fourth
round. Here is the first graph:
Right away it appears that the 0.6 estimate does not hold up as numerous players hovered around the x-axis (0%) at or above 0.6ppg. Despite that I am still going to use 0.6 as the baseline just to see what type of results it generates.
As expected the vast majority of players did fall into the bottom left portion of the graph. I would expect that the five players in the top right of the graph are ones who had down years their draft season causing their stock to drop. I expect these players posted excellent age 19 and/or age 20 seasons. What really stands out in this graph is the 24 players who scored above 0.6 but never amounted to anything in the NHL.
How they Missed
In researching the 24 players, a very interesting trend
emerged which explains why that number was so large. Of the 24 players 17 of
them were drafted as over-agers, i.e. not in their first draft eligible season. That
leaves us with only seven players left to examine.
-Mark Barberio (152nd
overall, 2008) and David Savard (94th
overall, 2009), both are young enough at 24 and 23 respectively, to still be
establishing themselves at the NHL level.
-Jonathan
Zion (110th overall, 1999) and Cole Jarret (141st, 2001), both struggled in the AHL and
jumped to Europe.
-Logan
Pyett (212th overall, 2006)
and Raymond Macias (124th overall, 2005) also struggled in
the AHL.
-Simon
Lacriox (196th overall, 2007) never signed and went to the
University of Moncton when CHL career was over.
How they Made it
-Kyle
Quincey (132nd overall, 2003) and T.J. Brodie (114th overall, 2008) both fall into the category
of having a down season. Both were able to improve their scoring above 0.6 in
their age 19 and 20 seasons.
-Milan
Jurcina (241st overall, 2001) and Marc Methot (168th overall 2003) are the two exceptions
as they never scored at any point in their CHL careers. Both players were big
and likely made it due to their physical play.
James Wisniewski also falls under this category but really
should be counted as a success as he put up 0.58 ppg in his draft season and
surged to over a point per game the following season.
2014 Draft Eligible CHL Defensemen as per Central
Scouting’s final ranking.
Player
|
Rank
|
GP
|
Goals
|
Assists
|
Points
|
PPG
|
Aaron
Ekblad
|
2
|
58
|
23
|
30
|
53
|
0.91
|
Haydn
Fleury
|
9
|
70
|
8
|
38
|
46
|
0.66
|
Julius
Honka
|
11
|
62
|
16
|
40
|
56
|
0.90
|
Anthony
Deangelo
|
14
|
51
|
15
|
56
|
71
|
1.39
|
Brycen Martin
|
26
|
72
|
6
|
31
|
37
|
0.51
|
Roland
McKeown
|
27
|
62
|
11
|
32
|
43
|
0.69
|
Brett Lernout
|
52
|
72
|
8
|
14
|
22
|
0.31
|
Travis Sanheim
|
53
|
67
|
5
|
24
|
29
|
0.43
|
Aaron Haydon
|
54
|
61
|
5
|
11
|
16
|
0.26
|
Blake Siebenaler
|
55
|
68
|
6
|
24
|
30
|
0.44
|
Alex Peters
|
56
|
50
|
3
|
6
|
9
|
0.18
|
Kyle Jenkins
|
69
|
63
|
7
|
18
|
25
|
0.40
|
Ryan Rehill
|
76
|
72
|
4
|
16
|
20
|
0.28
|
Dysin
Mayo
|
82
|
63
|
7
|
28
|
35
|
0.56
|
Rinat Valiev*
|
83
|
55
|
5
|
23
|
28
|
0.51
|
Ben Thomas
|
86
|
73
|
7
|
24
|
31
|
0.42
|
Aaron Irving
|
90
|
63
|
9
|
21
|
30
|
0.48
|
Nelson Nogier
|
93
|
37
|
1
|
5
|
6
|
0.16
|
Riley
Stadel
|
99
|
63
|
10
|
25
|
35
|
0.56
|
Daniel Walcott*
|
102
|
67
|
10
|
29
|
39
|
0.58
|
Dallas Valentine
|
105
|
69
|
3
|
11
|
14
|
0.20
|
Josh Wesley
|
111
|
68
|
2
|
7
|
9
|
0.13
|
Alexis
Vanier
|
112
|
61
|
15
|
21
|
36
|
0.59
|
Santino Centorame
|
113
|
61
|
3
|
15
|
18
|
0.30
|
Stefan Leblanc
|
123
|
64
|
5
|
23
|
28
|
0.44
|
Stephen Desrocher
|
125
|
43
|
4
|
4
|
8
|
0.19
|
Olivier
Leblanc
|
126
|
56
|
7
|
26
|
33
|
0.59
|
Sam Ruopp
|
127
|
64
|
5
|
11
|
16
|
0.25
|
Matthew Murphy*
|
128
|
64
|
10
|
26
|
36
|
0.56
|
Yannick Rathgeb
|
129
|
57
|
7
|
14
|
21
|
0.37
|
Colton Bobyk
|
130
|
56
|
5
|
7
|
12
|
0.21
|
Patrick Sanvido
|
140
|
64
|
1
|
7
|
8
|
0.13
|
Josh Thrower
|
148
|
62
|
2
|
4
|
6
|
0.10
|
Cody
Donaghey
|
150
|
67
|
9
|
29
|
38
|
0.57
|
Alexey Sleptsov
|
151
|
66
|
4
|
21
|
25
|
0.38
|
Jacob Middleton
|
172
|
65
|
2
|
21
|
23
|
0.35
|
Brandon Prophet
|
174
|
65
|
2
|
17
|
19
|
0.29
|
Kevin Laliberte
|
175
|
67
|
0
|
13
|
13
|
0.19
|
Frank Hora
|
176
|
65
|
1
|
19
|
20
|
0.31
|
Kayle Doetzel *
|
178
|
70
|
2
|
10
|
12
|
0.17
|
Sergei Boikov
|
183
|
68
|
2
|
10
|
12
|
0.18
|
Alex Lintuniemi
|
187
|
68
|
4
|
17
|
21
|
0.31
|
Kyle Wood
|
191
|
33
|
2
|
10
|
12
|
0.36
|
Alexander Mikulovich
|
192
|
57
|
7
|
7
|
14
|
0.25
|
Edson Harlacher
|
196
|
71
|
0
|
9
|
9
|
0.13
|
Phil Baltisberger
|
197
|
57
|
1
|
14
|
15
|
0.26
|
Daniel De Sousa
|
204
|
39
|
2
|
11
|
13
|
0.33
|
Tanner Faith
|
211
|
10
|
0
|
1
|
1
|
0.10
|
*not first time draft eligible
I understand that the list is very long which is why I
bolded the players who I think have the best chance to become NHL regulars. The
first four player are obvious and don’t require much explanation. These are the
elite defencemen of this draft class and all should be first round picks. The
players who I am more interested in are the ones further down the list who are
just hovering slightly below the 0.6 ppg. Dysin Mayo, Riley Stadel, Alexis
Vanier, Olivier Leblanc and Cody Donaghey all are currently projected to go
after the third round of the draft. These are players I would gamble on as they
are close enough to 0.6 and likely are to come at a very cheap draft pick cost.
I am looking forward to following these players next season to see who improves
and becomes a draft day steal. The remaining players on this list should likely
be avoided unless scouts believe there is room to grow offensively.
It’s clear from this study that 0.6ppg continues to be a
good proxy for predicting NHL success of CHL defencemen. The issue to watch for
as you get into the later stages of the draft are overage players who post
gaudy stat lines while being older than their peers. These players had a very
high bust rate and should be avoided on draft day. This study also supports
highly rated players like Aaron Ekblad and Haydon Fleury and identifies some
potential late round sleepers in Dysin Mayo and Cody Donaghey. This completes
the major North American leagues in which players are drafted out of. Up next I
will have a ranking of all the North American defencemen using the data from
these studies.
If you have any questions about this post or any of the
other ones don’t hesitate to ask in the comments.
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