No Harm Dunn – Could Vince Dunn be a first round pick in 2015?

In my write up on Blake Siebenaler I made a couple notes on his defence partner and fellow rookie Vince Dunn. I noted how they are very similar players. Had Dunn been eligible for this year’s draft he would have likely went right around where Siebenaler did in the third round. Being an October birthday however pushed Dunn to this season’s draft. In watching Dunn play last season I believe he has the tools to become an NHL first round pick next June.

Dunn is a very good skater. Has an effortless stride that he uses to get up and down the ice quickly. He is not afraid to stick handle the puck in his own end and attempt to exit the zone with a controlled entry. This is a very good skill to have. Sheldon Keefe the head coach of the Sault Ste. Marie Greyhounds stated in an interview discussing the Kyle Dubas hiring and analytics, that the risk of carrying the puck in your end is offset by the benefit of leaving the zone with a controlled exit. This was even more prevalent in Niagara as the neutral zone is so small that a controlled zone exit is basically a controlled zone entry or carry in, which we know leads to more shots and scoring chances.

Dunn put up 33 points in 63 games (0.52ppg) this past season. That point total was among the top ten for OHL 16 year olds per extraskater, and tops among defencemen. What makes that total even more impressive was the fact that Dunn played with a poor Niagara team. I made this point in the Seibenaler piece but it is worth mentioning again. As the second defence pair Dunn never really had a chance to play with Brenden Perlinni, who went in the first round this draft, or Carter Verhaege, who formed a solid first line for the Dogs. The quality of competition and quality of teammate’s numbers (again from extraskater) support this observation, as Dunn played the fourth toughest competition and had the fourth best teammates among Ice Dog defencemen.

Dunn-Siebenaler should be the top pair next season for Niagara. If they don’t start the season as the first pair I expect them to finish there as they are much better than Luke Mercer and Aaron Haydon, the current top pair. That will allow them both to get more ice time as well as the chance to play with more skilled forwards. This combined with being a year older should help Dunn blow past his scoring total of 33 from last season. I would expect somewhere around 50+ points from Dunn which would be more than enough to get past the 0.6 “barrier.”

A smooth skating puck moving defencemen who puts up points sounds an awful lot like a first rounder to me. However what may keep Dunn from that status will be; you guessed it size. Dunn is undersized for a defencemen at six feet tall. His smallish stature limits what he can do physically which makes him appear to be a weak defender. This may very well be true but he does such a good job creating offence that he's playing defence less than you would expect. Dave Tippet has a great quote on this sort of player;

                

       “We had a player that was supposed to be a great, shutdown defenseman. He was supposedly the be-all, end-all of defensemen. But when you did a 10-game analysis of him, you found out he was defending all the time because he can't move the puck. Then we had another guy, who supposedly couldn't defend a lick. Well, he was defending only 20 percent of the time because he's making good plays out of our end. He may not be the strongest defender, but he's only doing it 20 percent of the time. So the equation works out better the other way. I ended up trading the other defenseman.”

That quote is a few years old so you may have seen it before, but I thought it was worth mentioning as it is very relevant to Dunn.

I think the other thing with Dunn is what Tyler Dellow referred to as the “Big Mistake.” People are inherently biased and will remember the one big mistake rather than the five or ten good little plays. That is just human nature, and is one of the major short comings of the eyeball test. Dunn handles the puck a lot and with that comes turnovers which can lead to goals against. That coupled with his lack of physical play could cause Dunn to slide on teams' draft boards.

To answer the question posed in the title, yes I think Vince Dunn has a chance to be a first round pick. He has the tools and the opportunity to have a big offensive season. He may not be the best defender but that isn't a major problem as he spends a lot of time in the offensive zone. When he is forced to play defence he can use his good skating to carry the puck out of the zone. If Dunn is able to continue improving and build on last season he could very well wind up as an NHL first round pick.    

Is Griffin Reinhart Still an NHL Caliber Player??

The New York Islanders had a great off-season. The additions of Mikael Grabovski and Nikoli Kulemin give the NYI a solid top 6. The Jaroslav Halak trade and then signing addressed their biggest weakness from last season. They also had a great draft nabbing Michael Dal Cole and Josh Ho-Sang in the first round. One area they failed to improve upon was defence. There has been some talk that after winning the Memorial Cup that Griffin Reinhart is ready to make the jump to the NHL and help the Islanders defence.

So I took a peak at Reinhart’s hockeydb page and noticed an alarming trend in his points per game.

He has only one season above the 0.6 rate that predicts NHL success. Usually players who go on to play in the NHL are improving as they get older.

Jonathan Willis over at Oilers Nation wrote a piece on Reinhart and looked at every defencemen picked in the top 10 since 2000, and had an 82 game pace offensive total within 10 points of Reinhart in his draft season. The list included nine players; Ryan Murray, Erik Gudbranson, Jared Cowan, Luke Schenn, Karl Alzner, Keaton Ellerby, Braydon Coburn, and Dion Phaneuf. Not a terrible list. These players could all be considered defensive defencemen at the NHL level. What stands out is that every player improved their scoring rate in the following seasons, with the exceptions being Alzner and Reinhart. Alzner however still put up a ppg rate of 0.6 before jumping to the NHL in his draft +2 season.  

To give Reinhart’s season some context, beyond draft status, I decided to look for players who are of similar size and put up a comparable number of points. I looked at all WHL defencemen who were at least 6’3 or taller, scored between 20-40 points and were in their age 19 or 20 season. I did this for the previous two seasons. That yielded the following 14 players.

-Ben Betker

-Richard Nedomlel

-Sam Grist

-Mitchell Wheaton

-Joel Edmundson

-David Musil

-Duncan Siemens

-Jaynen Rissling

-Kyle Becker

-Brett Lernout

-Dillon Heatherington

-Mason Geertsen

-Mirco Mueller

-Ty Stanton

Not a very inspiring group to say the least. The only real prospects on the list are Mueller, Heatherington Musil and Siemens, and really it’s a stretch to call the latter three prospects. Siemens is actually an interesting comp for Reinhart. They both had good but not great draft seasons, and both saw their production drop in the following seasons. Siemens dropped from 0.6 down to 0.49 to 0.46. For what it’s worth Siemens’ struggles continued in the AHL as he only put up 4 points in 46 games for the Lake Erie Monsters.

Reinhart is clearly the better defensive player of the two. Defence however is very tough to evaluate. Megan (@butyoucarlotta) did some great work tracking the Portland-Edmonton WHL finals.  Her numbers showed that Reinhart was doing a great job of breaking up plays and limiting shots on net, the best among the Oil Kings defencemen.  That will have to continue to be his strength at the next level.

The lack of points though remains a concern. Rhys, as well as myself debunked the theory that defensive defencemen are made in junior. Most defensive defencemen in the NHL today were guys who put up points in junior.

With Reinhart being a defensive defencemen I have a theory that perhaps he was so focused on defence he almost forgot about offense. Much like Jared McCann for the Sault Ste. Marie Greyhounds. We don’t have the same fancy stats for the CHL that we do for the NHL but extraskater still has some that can test this theory. The first is quality of competition. I would expect Reinhart to play some of the toughest competition in the league, which may be limiting his point totals. 

The way QOC is calculated for the CHL is that each player’s time on ice is estimated, then assumes coaches play their best players the most, and then figures out who played the most against those high TOI guys. Looking at the Oil Kings top 6 defencemen Reinhart did in fact play against the toughest competition. However since Reinhart never had to play against his own team his QOC looks rather pedestrian when compared to the rest of the D in the WHL. There Reinhart ranks 31^st. The top of that list was Josh Morrissey who despite the toughest QOC was able to put up over a point per game. As we scroll further down the list we see other notable first round picks succeeding despite the tough competition. Ryan Pullok ranks fourth, Julius Honka 8^th, and Derek Pouliot 12^th. All of them faced tougher competition than Reinhart and all were able to put up big offensive numbers.

I would like to point out that Reinhart was injured for part of the 2013-2014 season. He had surgery to repair a torn tendon in his foot, suffered during the 2012-2013 playoffs. The injury caused him to miss the first month of this season. However I don’t think the injury was lingering as when he came back he played well, putting up five points in his first seven games.

Griffin Reinhart is an interesting case on one hand the scouts love him, the stats however tell a different story. Personally, I hate to say it, but I see him becoming a bust in the NHL. He doesn’t show enough offence at the moment. His stats look rather pedestrian when compared to defensive defencemen in the NHL, and compared to current WHL players Reinhart is surrounded by many non-prospects. I think he will play in the NHL on reputation and his high draft status, but won’t become the star people expect. He will be a very interesting player to follow next season whether he plays with the Islanders or the Bridgeport Sound Tigers.  

Extremely Early Look at the 2015 Draft

This is a very early look at the top 5 of what looks like a very strong draft class. I have included one MIND BLOWING fact about each player.

     

1.Conner McDavid

Everything about the Conner Mcdavid as a hockey player is mind blowing. His age 15 season of 66 points in 63 games (1.04ppg) was better than all but one 16 year old this year. His age 16 season of 99 points 56 games (1.77 ppg) was better than all 17 year old players this season. Those are impressive to say the least but the mind blowing fact about Mcdavid is this: among all CHL players Mcdavid had the highest points per 60 minutes at even strength. Ill repeat that; he was the best goal scorer at even strength this season in the ENTIRE CHL. Yes better than Jonathan Drouin, Anthony Mantha, Nic Petan, Sam Reinhart, Conner Brown, Dane Fox and you get the point.

2.Jack Eichel

Eichel slots in at #2 and is going to challenge Mcdavid for that #1 spot all season. Expect them to go back and forth in the rankings all year. Eichel had a phenomenal season with the US National Development program. He put up 87 points in 53 games good for a 1.64 ppg. What’s mind blowing about those numbers are they rank SECOND all-time among all USDP players, behind some guy named Phil Kessel and better than Patrick Kane, James Van Riemsdyk, Zach Parise, and Ryan Kesler.

3.Oliver Kylington

Kylington burst onto the scene for me when his SHL team Farjestad came and played against the AHL all-stars and the Toronto Marlies. Kylington had an assist in the all-star game and I remember seeing some tweets mentioning how great he was at getting zone entries vs the Marlies. Notably this one from Corey Pronman.Kylington played the majority of the season with Farjestad in the SHL putting up 6 points in 32 games. While those number may seem rather uninspiring consider this; his 6 points rank him SECOND all-time for a U17 player in the SHL. Not only that his 32 games played in the SHL are the most for a U17 since Magnus Paajarvi played in 35 in 2007-2008, as well as just the THIRD time in SHL history a U17 player has played in 30+ games.

4. Noah Hanifin

The second defencemen on this list Hanifin played the majority of the season with the US National development under 17 team. It would have been nice to have seen him play up a level with the U-18 team like Eichel. It’s clear however Hanifin could have played up a level as he put up 32 points in 45 games with the U17 team. Those 32 points are the MOST EVER for a U17 defencemen; Higher than Jack Johnson, Seth Jones, Jacob Trouba, Erik Johnson and Ryan Suter.

5.Travis Konecny

Konecny was the first overall selection in the 2013 OHL priority selection by the Ottawa 67’s. While that’s impressive in itself what makes it even more impressive is the fact that he was picked ahead of exceptional status player Sean Day. Konecny put any doubter to rest as he went out and put up 70 points in 63 games (1.11ppg) winning OHL rookie of the year.  The fact that he’s a point per game player as a 16 year old would be mind blowing enough, in a non-Mcdavid season. What is mind blowing is the fact that his 70 points are the most by an OHL rookie player since Nail Yakopov in the 2010-2011 season, and rank ahead of Tyler Seguin, Nathan Horton, Rick Nash and Steve Yzerman.

Also in consideration to go in the top 5

Kyle Conner

Conner had a great season in the USHL playing for the Youngstown Phantoms. Had 74 points in 56 games which is the 11^th most all time for a U18 in the USHL.

Daniel Sprong

The other 16 year old to put up a point per game in the CHL this season. Did that on a poor Charlottetown Islanders team.

Dylan Strome

Had a better rookie season that his brother Ryan who went fifth overall in 2011 (39p in 60g to 27p in 61g). Likely gets some playing time with Mcdavid this season in Erie, which will boost his point totals further.

All stats from eliteprospects.com and exrtraskater.com 

Biggest Draft Steals Rounds 4-7

Just steals this time around as no player can really be considered a reach in the latter half of the draft.   

Chase De Leo – Winnipeg Jets 99^th overall

The Jets got a big steal in last year’s draft selecting Nic Petan 43rd overall. This year they get another steal this time drafting Petan’s teammate De Leo.  De Leo much like Petan is a small skill player. De Leo put up 81 points in 72 games this season and clearly fell due to his size. It’s crazy to me that teams scouted Portland and watched all the small skill they have with Petan, Oliver Bjorkstrand, Brendan Leipsic etc. and not come away thinking I want some of that skill. The Winterhawks entire third line of Dominic Turgeon, Alex Schoenborn, and Keegan Iverson all were picked ahead of De Leo, so clearly teams are not thinking that. I hope that De Leo and Petan can both play on a line together with that Jets and maybe then teams will realize how undervalued small skill is.  

Dainel Audette – Montreal Canadiens 147^th overall

Audette falls right into the same category that just about every other steal I've talked about; a small skill player on a terrible team. The Sherbrooke Phoenix had an abysmal season in the QMJHL finishing in last place with just 16 wins. Audette was the team’s lone bright spot putting up 76 points in 68 games. The Canadiens have a recent history of drafting these types of players getting Brendan Gallagher and Charles Hudon late in the 2010 and 2012 drafts respectively.

Spencer Watson – Los Angeles Kings 209^th overall

Our final steal of the 2014 entry draft comes from the 209^th player, the second last player selected; Spencer Watson. His small stature as with every other player here is what scared teams off, but more so than that was the fact that he played the entire season on Sam Bennett’s right wing. Watson put up 68 points in 65 games, yes Bennett has a large influence on those numbers, but I don’t think that’s enough of reason for him to practically go undrafted. He clearly has a solid skill level as the Kingston coach wouldn’t put two goons with Bennett. Even if he did there is no way they would be point per game players.

NHL teams very clearly undervalue small skilled players on terrible teams. This is a major market inefficiency in today’s game and these teams have either by choice or by fluke have exploited it and should be very happy with their selections. 

Draft Steals & Reaches Rounds 1-3

Today’s focus will be on the first three rounds of the draft. Taking a look at three players who could turn out to be big steals for their respective teams and looking at three players who teams may regret drafting.  

Steals

Nikolay Goldobin – San Jose 27^th overall

It’s very difficult to find a sleeper in the first round of the draft as the players have been scouted extensively for the past few seasons. Despite that teams still looked past Goldobin. He slid for three reasons. First of all he is Russian which always scares teams. Second he is small at only 5’11. Third he played on a very bad Sarnia Sting team that finished last in the OHL. He was really all Sarnia had outside of Anthony DeAngelo in terms of talent. He played against the other team’s best players and had below average teammates and still managed to put up 94 points in 67 games. If the Sharks do end up blowing up their team, Goldobin is going to be a big part of the re-build.

Ivan Barbashev – St Louis 33^rd overall  

Barbashev fell for similar reasons to Goldobin. He’s Russian, isn’t the biggest guy at 6’1 and played on a mediocre Moncton team in the QMJHL. Again though skill will weigh out and Barbashev has tons of it. He put up 68 points in 48 games for the Wildcats. He was projected to be a first round pick by numerous people so St Louis already having a very good young core can another high level player to their system.

Brayden Point – Tampa Bay 79^th overall    

Steve Yzerman is starting to look like one of the smartest GM’s in the league. He seems to put a priority on skill and not size as shown by Tampa being reliant so much on Ondrej Palat and Tyler Johnson this past season. Not to mention Marty St. Louis when here was there. Yzerman may have found the next great small star with his third round pick of Brayden Point. Point much like Goldobin and Barbashev is as mentioned small, he’s 5’9. He also played on a poor Moose Jaw Warriors team that missed the playoffs in the WHL. Despite that Point has showed a great ability to score in the WHL, putting up 91 points in 72 games this past season. If he is able to reach his potential he will provide some nice secondary scoring for Tampa behind Steven Stamkos and Jonathan Drouin.  

Reaches

Travis Sanheim – Philadelphia 19^th overall

This is the second year in a row Philly has jumped at the biggest riser of the season. Last year it was Samuel Morin who came out of seemingly nowhere and ended up being picked 11^th overall. For Sanheim the big rise was attributed to his big performance at the Under 18 tournament where he put up 6 points in 7 games and was arguably Canada’s best defencemen. However this was mostly small sample size noise as he was nowhere near that type of production in the WHL. In 67 games this season with the Calgary Hitmen he had 29 points good for only a 0.43 ppg. He has a reputation of being a solid shutdown defencemen but it’s pretty clear that those players bust more often than not. Philly has had problems on defence for a long time and I don’t believe Sanheim or Morin are going to fix that issue.

Hunter Smith – Calgary 54^th overall

Classic Brian Burke pick here. Smith is everything Burke loves in a hockey player, he’s a giant on the ice listed at 6’7 and 220 pounds.  He competes as shown by his 100 penalty minutes and he also fights including this heavyweight bout with Nick Ritchie. The problem is that he is not very good at playing hockey itself. In Smiths first draft eligible year last season he put up 2 points in 45 games with Windsor and Oshawa. This season he had 40 points in 64 games which is much better but still nothing to write home about. I also wonder how much those numbers are influenced from playing on a great Oshawa team including Michael Dal Colle who went 5^th overall to the Islanders. I see Smith if he ever makes the NHL as being a fourth line goon and those can be had for basically free, no reason to waste a draft pick on one.

Warren Foegele – Carolina 67^th overall   

After the first two rounds it’s pretty tough to find a pick that’s a major reach as the majority of players are never going to see the NHL. Despite that I found Carolina’s pick of Warren Foegele an interesting one. He's interesting because he a very unusual route to being drafted. Foegele was selected from St. Andrew’s College which is a Canadian High School. The reason he chose this route was so that he can play NCAA hockey next season. He had one of the best seasons ever for a Canadian high schooler. He put up 107 points in 52 games which is the second highest point total ever per eliteprospects database. His points per game of 2.06 ranks 24^th all-time and moves up to 16^th if you include a 20 game minimum. The reason this pick is a reach is because of the inherent risk and uncertainty surrounding him. How much stock can you put into a kid playing against high schoolers? There is so much we don’t know about the league talent level whether from an individual or team perspective.  I can understand a team wanting to take a gamble but wait until the fifth, sixth, seventh round to do that.