Drafting my own Pool of Prospects

I decided rather than do a typical winner-loser post or a breakdown of teams drafts, I have decided to change it up and put myself up against NHL GM’s. To do that I am going to take seven prospects who will “enter” my teams system. The catch; all players I select have just gone undrafted in this 2014 NHL Draft.

With my first pick I will select from the Moncton Wildcats left winger Vladimir Tkachev. Tkachev is a highly skilled Russian who played on a line with Ivan Barbashev this past season. Tkachev may have been a bit of a passenger but still put up 30 points in 20 games for the Wildcats. He has great speed and is quick with the puck, evidenced by this goal he scored in the Subway Super Series. He gives my team a legitimate top prospect and a player with top 6 upside.  

With my second pick I dabble into the NCAA to find Gavin Bayreuther of St Lawrence University. NCAA players have been shown to be undervalued by teams and tend to have a great return on investment. Bayreuther had an excellent season putting up 36 points in 38 games. I found at that NCAA d-men who score at least 0.5 points per game have the best chance of becoming NHL players. Bayreuther blows away that number which leads me to believe he has NHL potential.  

With my third pick I head over to the WHL and nab Kelowna Rockets center Tyson Baille. Baille has a great hockey IQ and thinks the game at very high level. He combines that with soft hands and a good skating ability. He put up 55 points in 56 games this season for the Rockets. That ppg total of 0.98 was second on the Rockets. Kelowna was a very strong team this past season so parts of Baillie’s stats may be inflated but he still has shown enough skill to be worth taking a chance on.  

Heading to the QMJHL for the fourth pick and second defencemen; Nikolas Brouillard. Brouillard was covered in my seventh round sleepers post but to recap. Brouillard in his second draft eligible season put up 61 points in 68 games. I have mentioned that overage players tend to be busts more often than not but his draft season was also very successful as he put up 57 points in 68 games. He could pair with Bayreuther to give my team a solid puck moving defence tandem.

With my fifth pick I jump into the US high school system and get John-Claude Brassard. Now I know high school players are the hardest to project and come with significant risk, but the research I did showed that defencemen who put up 1.5 points per game in high school have a better chance of becoming NHL regulars. Among high school D ranked by central scouting, Brassard had the highest ppg with 1.59.

For my sixth pick I am taking Luke Phillip from the Kootney Ice of the WHL. Phillip has good passing skills as shown by his 46 assists this season. Don’t let that total fool you into thinking this guy can’t finish because he can, popping 31 goals this season. In looking at his +/- total it appears he played on the second line with Tim Bozon and Autin Vettel rather than the top line with Sam Reinhart and Jaedon Descheneau. That bodes well for his future success as it looks like he is the one driving the bus and making his teammates better.

With my seventh pick I again go to yet another league this time to the USA under 18 team and pick defencemen Brandon Fortunato. Fortunato had a solid season for the U-18 team posting 37 points in 61 games. That is right on the line of what predicts NHL success from the US National team. What gives me confidence about Fortunato is that this was not his first season showing offense. He put up 30 points in 17 games as a 16yr old in high school. He could be the steal of my team as he has a good chance of making the NHL.

If I was able to acquire more picks I would select Ivan Nikolishin a center from the Everet Silvertips and Joe Hicketts a defencemen from the Victoria Royals. I covered both in my seventh round sleepers post, which you can check out here.

There you have my 7 (+2) prospects from this year’s draft. I think I did pretty well as I tried to get skill at every position. I have a good mix of forwards and defenders. The lack of goalie depth may be an issue but again goalies are voodoo and I would likely just sign a cheap UFA goalie for my team. How does this team stack up to others in the NHL? Only time will tell.

All stats are from hockeydb and eliteprospects. Scouting tidbits are from HockeyProspects 2014 Black Book.

If you have any questions or comments about anything feel free to post them in the comment section. 

Round One Rumblings

Very exciting first round of the NHL entry draft. In a draft that was deemed to be very wide open it ended up with very few surprises and off the board picks.

The big winners for me were the New York Islanders. They chose to keep their pick this season and give their 2015 pick to Buffalo. At #5 they selected Michael Dal Colle from the Oshawa Generals. Not too surprising as Dal Colle was ranked as the 5^th best player by numerous people. What was really impressive by GM Garth Snow was what he did at the end of the first round. Snow traded pick 35 and 57 to Tampa Bay for pick 28. With that pick the Islanders picked Josh Ho-Sang. Ho-Sang has tremendous talent as shown by his 85 points in 67 games. Ho-Sang fell in this draft because he supposedly has attitude problems. He comes across as arrogant and tends to be selfish on the ice. I don’t know how a selfish players gets 53 assists but I digress. He has the skill that I like.

The big losers were the Vancouver Canucks. Having picks 6 and 24 the Canucks had a chance to add two highly skilled players to their system. They picked Jake Virtanen at 6 who isn’t a bad player by any means. He had 71 point in 71 games for the Calgary Hitmen. But the issue was there were better players available. Rhys of “That’s Offside” had a great piece comparing Virtanen to Nikoli Elhers, he colcluded that while Virtanen is a solid prospect Ehlers was just better and more likely to have a successful NHL career. Canucks could have picked Ehlers who went 9^th to Winnipeg or William Nylander who went 8^th to Toronto. The bleeding didn’t stop there as the Canucks had a chance to redeem themselves a bit at pick 24 with numerous skill guys still available. Vancouver passed on the skill again and went with Jared McCann. McCann has some skill shown by his 62 points in 64 games but he is more regarded for his defensive play. He might end up being a third line player at the NHL level.

For Day 2 of the Draft here are some names to keep your eye on.

Ivan Barbashev, Braydon Point, Alexis Vanier , Roland Mckeown, Chase De Leo, Rourke Chartier, Mark Friedman, Daniel Audette, Spencer Watson, Tyson Baille, Luke Phillip , Gavin Bayreuther.

Ill do a more in-depth analysis of the entire draft once day 2 is over. I will be following day 2 of the draft very closely so check back here for updates or you can follow me on twitter @PaulBerthelot. 

Seventh Round Sleepers

I identified a sleeper as a player who was not ranked in the HockeyProspect.com’s Black Book top 210 ranked players. The players below are expected to be available in the 7^th round and are worth taking a chance on.  

The “strength” area is why I think the player should be drafted and the “flaw” is why he’s likely available in the seventh round.

Nikolas Brouillard LD

Strength – Offensive defencemen playing for the Drummondville Voltigeurs has had back to back great seasons in the QMJHL, registering a ppg of 0.84 and 0.9.

Flaw – Is 5’10 and in his second draft eligible season.    

Anthony DeLuca LW

Strength – Point per game player for the Rimouski Oceanic; 78 points in 67 games. Has magic hands and some great dekes.    

Flaw – Second draft eligible season. Poor skating and is 5’8

Brandon Fortunato LD

Strength – Playing for the US-Under18 team Fortunato put up 37 points in 61 games (0.61ppg). 0.6 was the scoring rate that predicted NHL success for the U-18 d-men. Is a very smart player with a high hockey IQ, and is a good skater.

Flaw – Size, is 5’11 and doesn’t play very physical as he only weighs 148 pounds.

Conner Garland RW

Strength – Over a point per game player in the QMJHL, putting up 54 points in 51 games. Has good quickness, agility and puck control.

Flaw – Played on a line with Ivan Barbashev, Garland was clearly the passenger on that line. Size; he is 5’8 and struggles in his own zone.  

Joe Hicketts LD

Strength – Put up 24 points in 36 games (0.67) for the Victoria Royals. Quick agile skater with good puck control. High skill level

Flaw – Skill set is there and would be ranked much higher if he was bigger, he is 5’8. Struggled with injuries this season.

Michael Joly RW

Strength – Over a point per game player for the Rimouski Oceanic; 74 points in 64 games. Is an excellent stick handler.

Flaw – Is 5’10. Skating is below average. In his second draft eligible season.

Ivan Nikolishin C

Strength – Solid season for the Everett Silvertips finishing second on the team in scoring with 59 points in 72 games. Is a great playmaker attributed to his 41 assists this past season. Is a magician with the puck and has strong puck protection skills.

Flaw – Is Russian which can scare teams off. Size; is only 5’9. Not a physical player and has to improve his skating and speed.

Denis Orlovich-Grudkov RW

Strength – Highest scoring draft eligible player in the Russian Junior league, the MHL. Put up 52 points in 51 games. Good vision and passing abilities.

Flaw –  The Russian factor. Playing in the MHL, he may never come over to North America. Doesn’t have the typical skill set of a Russian player.

Very clear that size is a major factor is why these players are not ranked in the Black Book. I have made it very clear that I don’t care about size I want skill, and each of these players has skill. I hope to see these players get taken as they will all likely be available in the seventh round and could possibly be the steal of the draft.

All scouting tidbits and stats from HockeyProspects.com 2014 NHL Draft Black Book. 

2014 Defence Draft Rankings

As promised here are my defencemen rankings for the 2014 draft. Keep in mind I am only covering the North American leagues that I covered in the Counting Cards at the Draft Series.  I have sorted the players into tiers. The order in the tier is not too important, so feel free to move a guy up or down if you feel he is too low or high in a particular tier. I have based these rankings on the likelihood of future NHL success using the data I gathered from the Counting Cards at the Draft series.

Tier 1  

- Aaron Ekblad (CHL)

Ekblad gets his own tier as he is the cream of the crop among defencemen this year and has a chance of being the #1 overall selection in Philadelphia. He combines good scoring (0.91ppg) with great work in his own end to be the total package.

Tier 2

-Anthony Deangelo (CHL)

-Julius Honka  (CHL)

This tier consists of the small offensive defencemen. DeAngelo and Honka both measure in at 5’11, per HockeyDB’s database. They are both great with the puck as shown by their ability to put up points at the junior level. DeAngelo had a season for the ages putting up 71 points in 51 games, while Honka put up a very good 56 points in 62 games. The knock on DeAngelo is clearly his attitude and make-up. He has had numerous suspensions for verbally abusing officials and teammates. Personally I don’t see this being an issue long term because we have to remember these kids are 17 and 18 years old, there is bound to be some growing up left to do. The talent there is too much to pass up.   

Tier 3

-Haydn Fleury (CHL)

-Roland McKeown (CHL)

 -John-Claude Brassard  (USHS)

-Luc Snuggerud (USHS)

-Matthew Berkovitz (USHS)

-Mark Friedman (USHL)

The players in this tier also showed an ability to score this season. What put them in this tier rather than the above tier is the fact that no one here had the gaudy totals of DeAngelo or Honka. Brassard had the highest point per game total among high school players at 1.59ppg. Fleury is highly regarded for his defensive play and put a solid 46 points in 70 games.   

Tier 4

-Gavin Bayreuther* (NCAA)

-Brandon Montour * (USHL)

-Scott Savage*  (NCAA)

These three players scored above the rate that predicted NHL success. They are a tier lower because they are older and not in their first draft eligible season. Montour and Bayreuther are in their third season of draft eligibility. Savage is only in his second draft eligible season. Bayreuther was almost a point per game player as a freshman at St Lawrence, with 36 points in 38 games. All three players should be drafted just slightly lower than what their stat line would suggest.   

Tier 5

- Alexis Vanier (CHL)

-Olivier Leblanc (CHL)

-Cody Donaghey (CHL)

-Dysin Mayo (CHL)

-Riley Stadel (CHL)

-Tyler Nanne (USHL)

-Jonathan Barry (USHS)

-Brycen Martin (CHL)

-Blake Siebenaler (CHL)

This tier has the players who just missed the cut-off scoring rate. These players are worth taking a chance on as they have shown flashes of offensive potential. The goal here would be to find that player who is going to have a breakout season next year.  

Tier 6

-Jack Glover (US-U18)

-Jack Dougherty (US-U18)

-Michael Lee (USHS)

-Billy Sweezey (USHS)

-Louis Belpedio (US-U18)

-Stefan Leblanc (CHL)

-Kyle Jenkins (CHL)

-Aaron Irving (CHL)

-Travis Sanheim (CHL)

-Ben Thomas (CHL)

-Matthew Murphy* (CHL)

-Daniel Walcott* (CHL)

-Rinat Valiev* (CHL)

These players are similar to the last group in that they have shown a bit off offence; however it was lower than the players in the previous tier. These players all carry significant risk as a breakout season is needed to have any hope of making the NHL. Sanheim, Dougherty and Glover stand out here as they have been getting a lot of buzz as potentially top 45 picks.  I would avoid those players that high and let another team take on the risk.

Tier 7

-Joshua Jacobs (USHL)

-Neil Pionk (USHL)

-Miles Gendron (USHS) 

-Nick Wolff (USHS)

-Alexey Sleptsov (CHL)

-Yannick Rathgeb (CHL)

-Kyle Wood (CHL)

-Jacob Middleton (CHL)

-Daniel De Sousa (CHL)

-Alex Lintuniemi (CHL)

-Frank Hora (CHL)

-Brett Lernout (CHL)

-Santino Centorame (CHL)

-Brandon Prophet (CHL)

Players in this tier have showed minimal ability to score and it is not enough to be considered for this draft.

Tier 8

-Ryan Rehill (CHL)

-Phil Baltisberger (CHL)

-Aaron Haydon (CHL)

-Sam Ruopp (CHL)

-Alexander Mikulovich (CHL)

-Johnathan Macleod (US-U18)

-Colton Bobyk (CHL)

-Dallas Valentine (CHL)

-Kevin Laliberte (CHL)

-Stephen Desrocher (CHL)

-Alex Peters (CHL)

-Sergei Boikov (CHL)

-Kayle Doetzel * (CHL)

-Nelson Nogier (CHL)

-Josh Wesley (CHL)

-Edson Harlacher (CHL)

-Patrick Sanvido (CHL)

-Ryan Collins (US-U18)

-Josh Thrower (CHL)

-Ryan Mantha (USHL)

-Hunter Warner (USHL)

-Parker Reno* (NCAA)

-Tanner Faith (CHL)

*indicates not first time draft eligible

I would avoid all players in this tier completely as they haven’t shown much of any offensive ability at all. 

Counting Cards at the Draft – CHL Defencemen

This is the fifth installment of this series, if you are new to the series and would like to catch up you can read them here: part 1-NCAA, part 2- USHS, part 3- USHL, and part 4- US U-18.

We know from the great work done by Rhys of “That’s Offside” that CHL defencemen picked in the first three rounds tend to be successful NHL players if they score at a 0.6 point per game rate in junior. I decided to take this one step further and see if this theory holds true for players picked in the fourth round and on. I hypothesize that the 0.6 will hold up through rounds 4+. I expect there to be very few successes, with the majority of players being in the bottom left of the graph. This is because the CHL is the most heavily scouted league and any player who is any good is most likely gone by the fourth round.  Here is the first graph:

Right away it appears that the 0.6 estimate does not hold up as numerous players hovered around the x-axis (0%) at or above 0.6ppg. Despite that I am still going to use 0.6 as the baseline just to see what type of results it generates.

As expected the vast majority of players did fall into the bottom left portion of the graph. I would expect that the five players in the top right of the graph are ones who had down years their draft season causing their stock to drop. I expect these players posted excellent age 19 and/or age 20 seasons. What really stands out in this graph is the 24 players who scored above 0.6 but never amounted to anything in the NHL.

How they Missed

In researching the 24 players, a very interesting trend emerged which explains why that number was so large. Of the 24 players 17 of them were drafted as over-agers, i.e. not in their first draft eligible season. That leaves us with only seven players left to examine.

-Mark Barberio (152^nd overall, 2008) and David Savard (94^th overall, 2009), both are young enough at 24 and 23 respectively, to still be establishing themselves at the NHL level.

-Jonathan Zion (110^th overall, 1999) and Cole Jarret (141^st, 2001), both struggled in the AHL and jumped to Europe.

-Logan Pyett (212^th overall, 2006)  and Raymond Macias (124^th overall, 2005) also struggled in the AHL.

-Simon Lacriox (196^th overall, 2007) never signed and went to the University of Moncton when CHL career was over.

How they Made it

-Kyle Quincey (132^nd overall, 2003) and T.J. Brodie (114^th overall, 2008) both fall into the category of having a down season. Both were able to improve their scoring above 0.6 in their age 19 and 20 seasons.

-Milan Jurcina (241^st overall, 2001) and Marc Methot (168^th overall 2003) are the two exceptions as they never scored at any point in their CHL careers. Both players were big and likely made it due to their physical play.

James Wisniewski also falls under this category but really should be counted as a success as he put up 0.58 ppg in his draft season and surged to over a point per game the following season. 

2014 Draft Eligible CHL Defensemen as per Central Scouting’s final ranking.

Player	Rank	GP	Goals	Assists	Points	PPG
Aaron Ekblad	2	58	23	30	53	0.91
Haydn Fleury	9	70	8	38	46	0.66
Julius Honka	11	62	16	40	56	0.90
Anthony Deangelo	14	51	15	56	71	1.39
Brycen Martin	26	72	6	31	37	0.51
Roland McKeown	27	62	11	32	43	0.69
Brett Lernout	52	72	8	14	22	0.31
Travis Sanheim	53	67	5	24	29	0.43
Aaron Haydon	54	61	5	11	16	0.26
Blake Siebenaler	55	68	6	24	30	0.44
Alex Peters	56	50	3	6	9	0.18
Kyle Jenkins	69	63	7	18	25	0.40
Ryan Rehill	76	72	4	16	20	0.28
Dysin Mayo	82	63	7	28	35	0.56
Rinat Valiev*	83	55	5	23	28	0.51
Ben Thomas	86	73	7	24	31	0.42
Aaron Irving	90	63	9	21	30	0.48
Nelson Nogier	93	37	1	5	6	0.16
Riley Stadel	99	63	10	25	35	0.56
Daniel Walcott*	102	67	10	29	39	0.58
Dallas Valentine	105	69	3	11	14	0.20
Josh Wesley	111	68	2	7	9	0.13
Alexis Vanier	112	61	15	21	36	0.59
Santino Centorame	113	61	3	15	18	0.30
Stefan Leblanc	123	64	5	23	28	0.44
Stephen Desrocher	125	43	4	4	8	0.19
Olivier Leblanc	126	56	7	26	33	0.59
Sam Ruopp	127	64	5	11	16	0.25
Matthew Murphy*	128	64	10	26	36	0.56
Yannick Rathgeb	129	57	7	14	21	0.37
Colton Bobyk	130	56	5	7	12	0.21
Patrick Sanvido	140	64	1	7	8	0.13
Josh Thrower	148	62	2	4	6	0.10
Cody Donaghey	150	67	9	29	38	0.57
Alexey Sleptsov	151	66	4	21	25	0.38
Jacob Middleton	172	65	2	21	23	0.35
Brandon Prophet	174	65	2	17	19	0.29
Kevin Laliberte	175	67	0	13	13	0.19
Frank Hora	176	65	1	19	20	0.31
Kayle Doetzel *	178	70	2	10	12	0.17
Sergei Boikov	183	68	2	10	12	0.18
Alex Lintuniemi	187	68	4	17	21	0.31
Kyle Wood	191	33	2	10	12	0.36
Alexander Mikulovich	192	57	7	7	14	0.25
Edson Harlacher	196	71	0	9	9	0.13
Phil Baltisberger	197	57	1	14	15	0.26
Daniel De Sousa	204	39	2	11	13	0.33
Tanner Faith	211	10	0	1	1	0.10

*not first time draft eligible

I understand that the list is very long which is why I bolded the players who I think have the best chance to become NHL regulars. The first four player are obvious and don’t require much explanation. These are the elite defencemen of this draft class and all should be first round picks. The players who I am more interested in are the ones further down the list who are just hovering slightly below the 0.6 ppg. Dysin Mayo, Riley Stadel, Alexis Vanier, Olivier Leblanc and Cody Donaghey all are currently projected to go after the third round of the draft. These are players I would gamble on as they are close enough to 0.6 and likely are to come at a very cheap draft pick cost. I am looking forward to following these players next season to see who improves and becomes a draft day steal. The remaining players on this list should likely be avoided unless scouts believe there is room to grow offensively.

It’s clear from this study that 0.6ppg continues to be a good proxy for predicting NHL success of CHL defencemen. The issue to watch for as you get into the later stages of the draft are overage players who post gaudy stat lines while being older than their peers. These players had a very high bust rate and should be avoided on draft day. This study also supports highly rated players like Aaron Ekblad and Haydon Fleury and identifies some potential late round sleepers in Dysin Mayo and Cody Donaghey. This completes the major North American leagues in which players are drafted out of. Up next I will have a ranking of all the North American defencemen using the data from these studies.

If you have any questions about this post or any of the other ones don’t hesitate to ask in the comments.