Niagara Ice Dogs vs. Mississauga Steelheads – February 27, 2014

               Tonight I was in St. Catharines to watch two Central division teams battle it out for last place. The Steelheads won 3-1 but were out chanced 21-13 and 16-11 at even strength, by my count. I was there was to watch potential top-10 pick Brendan Perlini from the Ice Dogs and exceptional status defencemen Sean Day from the Steelheads. I was also interested in Niagara draft eligible players Aaron Haydon (28 on Central Scouting’s list of NA skaters), Blake Siebenaler (47), Alexander Mikulovich (108), Alexander Protapovich (166) and 2015 draft eligible player, Vince Dunn. Mississauga has only one draft eligible player on Central Scouting’s list and it was Stefan LeBlanc ranked 131.

                

               I knew heading into the game there was no chance I could watch all of these guys so I focused on two guys per team. For Mississauga this worked out nicely as there were only two guys I wanted to see. On Niagara I decided to focus on Perlini and Dunn*. Perlini was obvious, but Dunn wasn't and I chose him as I guy to follow because of what he has done this season to date. He has put up 0.48 points per game this season (5G, 21A), which is tops among players I originally targeted.

* I would have followed Haydon but he was scratched for this game     

               

               Perlini was the most impressive player on the ice, and he showed why he is likely going in the top 10 of this year’s draft. He created five of the 21 scoring chances for the Ice Dogs and when he was on the ice he did a great job of getting the puck in the Steelheads end and controlling the play. Much like with Nick Ritchie and Peterborough, the Ice Dogs do not have good depth past Perlini, so it really showed that much more when he was on the ice. Niagara started the game very slowly getting out chanced in the first period 7-3(5-3 EV). I suggested to my friend I was with that to create more offense the Ice Dogs should play Perlini with the team leading scorer and Toronto Maple Leafs prospect Carter Verhaeghe. The Ice Dogs head coach Marty Williamson, must have been listening as the two played together for the duration of the second period. It’s funny what happens when your best players play together, Verhaeghe and Perlini went out and dominated the second period.  Their line (which also consisted of Anthony DiFruscia) combined for 6 of the 11 chances in the period, versus just three from the Steelheads. Despite the domination Williamson split the two up for the third period when the Ice Dogs were down and needed goals. A very odd decision I thought.   

                Perlini has great size and was able to use that size to protect the puck and keep it away from the defenders. He has  a great shot and was the go to shooter in Niagara’s 1-3-1 power play system (For those who don’t know the 1-3-1 power play, it is the one famously used by the Washington Capitals; Tyler Dellow has an excellent piece on it). He will not fill this role at the NHL level however because of his left shot. Perlini has 64 points (30G, 34A) in 50 games this season. That point total puts him 30th in the OHL in scoring which is a little low but he has missed some time this season due to injury.

                

            Vince Dunn as mentioned above was someone I was focused on because of his point per game production this season. I wanted to watch him to get a feel if he could add more offense to his game and hopefully get over the 0.6 hump in his draft season next year. His offensive game was good; he created two of the three scoring chances by Ice Dog defencemen. He was not on the top power play unit with Perlini and Verhaeghe which hurts his chances to get more points. If he is able to get on the top PP unit next season he could have a really good shot at getting that 0.6ppg.          

Stephen LaBlanc and Sean Day were conveniently defense partners in this game. The duo combined for two chances (one each) but I would have liked to have seen more considering how sheltered they were. What I gathered from this admittedly small sample size of one game is that Steelheads head coach James Boyd does not want to see Day in defensive zone, which is totally understandable for a 15yr old kid. LaBlanc on the other hand appeared to have the complete trust of his coach. LaBlanc played on the top penalty kill unit, and when Niagara pulled their goalie with about 1:30 left in the game I don’t think LaBlanc left the ice. He was out there for the initial 6-5 then when a time-out was called he was back out there again. In retrospect he makes the perfect pair with Day, because the coach knows that if Day makes a mistake he has a solid guy with him who he trusts to make plays in the defensive zone. LaBlanc is someone I would consider gambling on in draft in the latter half of the 4th round or early 5th. I could see as Day gets better in the defensive zone, LaBlanc could start to take more chances offensively and get his scoring up to the 0.6.  

Day as mentioned was very sheltered in terms of zone starts and competition. For someone who is just 15 he has good size (6’2, 216) and could potentially add another 1-2 inches. He used his size throwing a few very good hits; of which one was a big hit from behind that was missed by the refs. That drew the ire of the crowd. He played on shift against Perlini when he was stuck out on the ice after an icing. He did not look good covering Perlini as he chased him around the ice as Perlini got a beauty chance in the slot, a big save by Spencer Martin bailed out Day. Other than that one miscue he was fine in his own end keeping players to the outside and breaking up the play with an active stick. Keep in mind again he was playing against weak opponents on weak team. He played on the top PP unit for the Steelheads but it hasn’t led to many points this season. He only has 14 points (4G, 10A) in 51 games this season. Comparing that to Aaron Ekblad in his age 15 season (10G, 19A in 63G), Day lags behind but still the upside is there and I believe he can take a big step forward next season.

To conclude I definitely feel much better only watching two players per team as it gives me a more in-depth look into the players. I hope as I do more of this I am able to follow more players and get multiple in-depth looks at guys. I am also looking forward to seeing these players again as the more times you can watch a player the better understanding you will have of him. 

Comments are appreciated and encouraged. Let me know how I'm doing. Thanks.

Peterborough Petes vs. Saginaw Spirit - February 20, 2014

I've been to many OHL games this season but this was my first time really sitting down and watching certain players, rather than just sitting back and enjoying the game. On a whole this game was a lot closer than the score says. The Petes won 5-2 but were outshot 45-30 and by my count out chanced 19-15 at even strength and 22-18 overall. There were a few players I wanted see going into the game. On Peterborough I was interested draft eligible players Nick Ritchie and Eric Cornel, as well as third overall selection in the OHL draft Matt Spencer. On Saginaw I was interested in draft eligible players Dylan Sadowy, Blake Clarke and Brandon Prophet.

Every player played which was nice, however I wasn’t able to focus on the Saginaw players as much from a lack of familiarity of what they looked like and their numbers. Despite that Blake Clarke still managed to stand out for me. He is ranked 93rd on Central Scouting’s list of North American skaters. With only 7 points in 23 games this season it is not surprising he has such a low ranking. He did not record a point in this game but did have four scoring chances at even strength. Sadowy had three even strength chances one of which he converted on, giving him 22 goals on the season (with just 8 assists). He is ranked just above Clarke at 89 on Central Scouting’s list. Prophet was someone who I didn’t notice at all. As a defenseman it is not unusual to not have many scoring chances, but I think the big issue was that he played predominately against the Ritchie, Cornel line which had most of my attention.

       

            For those of you who haven’t had a chance to see the Petes play, they are not a great team and it showed early. Saginaw dominated the possession game against every line but the Ritchie-Cornel-Hunter Garlent line. When those three were on the ice they really swung the possession game back towards the Petes. They started the game getting some offensive zone starts where they did a good job cycling along the boards and keeping the puck away from Saginaw. After that I don’t think they saw another offensive zone start the rest of the game. Even with the tough assignment they were able to clear the defensive zone and generate chances at the other end. Ritchie-ranked 7th among NA skaters and 7th in Bob McKenzie’s mock draft- was very good at using his great size (6’3, 229) to protect the puck. He also appeared to have good hockey sense making good passes leading to one assist. He obviously got quite a bit of power play time but did not kill penalties, which is something I would have liked to have seen. I don’t think this is an issue where he can’t kill penalties. I think all the d-zone starts show that the coach trusts him in his own end. This is more a matter of your our best player we cannot afford you to be hurt blocking a shot. For the record he was out at the end of the game when Saginaw pulled their goalie. But if I was to draft this player I would like to see him on the PK because if he never scores at the NHL level he could settle into a third line shutdown role.    

Cornel is in the same position as Ritchie as he also plays in the defensive zone against the toughest competition but a lot of his success (21G, 31A) could be from playing predominately with a guy who’s likely going in the top-10. I know it is possible to do with you and without you charts for the OHL I’m just not sure how yet. It is something I definitely want to look at and something GM’s should want to know before they waste a second round pick on guy whose stats may be a by-product of someone else.

Spencer is an OHL rookie, not NHL draft eligible until 2015. He did make some “rookie mistakes,” where he pinched too far when he shouldn’t have, but those are plays he will hopefully learn. It was good to see him pinching, in that he was trying to create offence, only problem is it hasn’t worked to date. Spencer only has 13 points (1G, 12A) in 54 games, which is far below the 0.6 you would like to see.  He also looked bad defending a 1 on 2; he was defending Sadowy and went to engage him with a hit or poke check and Sadowy just slipped around him and scored. He was consistently getting second defensive pair minutes, with little to no time on special teams, which maybe a reason for the low point totals. He did get a few shifts with the Ritchie line late in the game, but this was when they were defending the lead. He is someone I'm going to have to watch more of to get an idea of what type of player he is/can be.  

        

Overall I felt this game was a success. I got to see everyone I wanted to, and feel I did an ok job at gathering at least a little information on each player. Next game I attend I definitely need to focus on fewer players as I tended to get lost as I followed just one guy. This will allow me to get a deeper understanding on certain guys rather just a blurb on multiple guys.

Comments are always appreciated as I am still learning this and looking for feedback, thanks.  

What I Value in NHL Draft Prospects

In order to get a good understanding of why I like certain players and why I rank them where I do, we first must understand what I value or want in a prospect. As someone who buys into fancy stats I understand the value of puck possession stats and how they help win hockey games. With that being said I value players who can drive possession at the NHL level very highly. Corey Pronman formerly of hockey prospectus and now at ESPN has a great piece on how to scout for possession. In that piece he talks about the key skills to be a puck possession forwards are puck skills and hockey sense, followed by skating. For defensemen it is puck moving skills and hockey sense followed by physical play. These are the same skills that I value and will go into further below. 

Forwards

                I want forwards to be very skilled with the puck, have good hands and creativity. This is obvious as these are the skills possessed by the elite scorers. My belief is that if you can’t score in junior you’re not going to score at the NHL level. When building my ideal NHL team (explained fully in a future post) I want three scoring/skill lines and then a shutdown line. In order to get three lines of skill it will have to be drafted into the system. I value hockey sense very highly as I believe these players have a very high floor. If you have an elite hockey sense in junior it will not go away at the NHL level.  If the skills don’t translate to the NHL the hockey sense will and it will give you a chance again to perhaps stay as a third-fourth liner. Skills are great but the player has to be able to put up points. A player may have all the skills the in world and be labeled a big time scorer, but if he’s not scoring I'm going to avoid him.    

Defense

                Much like with forwards hockey sense is a very valuable skill to have, especially as a defenseman. I want the d-man to be able to clear the defensive zone with a good pass and not turn the puck over in the defensive or neutral zone. It is also critical that defensemen score and put up points. This piece from “That’s Offside” looked at CHL drafted defensemen and what ones were likely to succeed and bust. He found that defensemen who scored below 0.6 points per game in junior made up the majority of busts. Those players were predominately players who were considered shutdown defensemen and were “safe” picks.  The players who didn't score above 0.6 in their draft year and turned out to be successful NHL players were able to improve their scoring to at or above 0.6 the following year.

Goalies

                This is where it gets very tough for scouts. The following two graphs are from Matt Pfeffer (@MattyPfeffer).

               This graph is the value of skaters (in terms of average GVT) based on draft spot. There is a nice pattern here with diminishing returns are you select later and later in the draft. This shows that scouts do a very good job at identifying which players are the best.  

Here is the same graph but now for goalies.

                As you can see here it is very random with no pattern at all. This shows that scouts have a much tougher time projecting goalies. Another great piece from "That's Offside" shows that goalies who post elite save percentage numbers in junior are more likely to succeeded than the goalies who don’t. That is why when I look at goalies I'm going to focus my attentions mostly on save percentage as a goalies only job is the stop the puck and if he can’t do that in junior good luck doing it in the NHL.

              This what I'm going to focus on when I scout players, I want skill guys who can drive possession up front, defenseman who think the game at a high level and goalies who can stop the puck. If you noticed I made no mention of how great a leader a player is, how clutch, how gritty, if their a winner etc. These things to me are all useless. If you have to mention these things about a player I assume that’s because they don’t have good enough skills/abilities to talk about. In reading scouting reports on Jonathan Drouin, Seth Jones, Conner McDavid etc. you never see scouts talking about how great a leader they are or how clutch they are, why? Because their hockey skills are phenomenal. If I see a report that a player is a great leader I automatically bump him down a few spot, because if he had good hockey skills it would be mentioned.  

            Hopefully this gives you a good understanding of what players I like and what I'm looking for in a prospect.

Comments/feedback is appreciated, I'm always looking to improve and learn. Thanks. 

Introduction to Backhand Bar Down

Hello, welcome to Backhand Bar Down.  This blog is going to focus on hockey prospects specifically on amateur prospects and the National Hockey League draft. I will try and write here weekly with topics ranging from my philosophy on how I would build an NHL team to breakdowns of certain draft eligible players. I will also look at draft philosophies/studies as I find those topics fascinating. I am also big believer of the fancy stats movement taking place in hockey right now and that will come across in my writing. I will try and explain the stats as best as I can but if you need a better explanation check out extraskater.com as it will be the site I likely pull most advanced stats from. I hope you enjoy reading this as much as I will writing it. Thanks