As promised, I watched the second game of the back to back
between the Charlottetown Islanders and the Cape Breton Screaming Eagles. This
game was a blowout which made evaluating guys a little tougher.
Sunday, September 21, 2014
Saturday, September 20, 2014
Sherbrooke Phoenix vs Val-d’Or Foreurs – September 20th 2014
Video quality wasn’t great for this game and both feeds had French
speaking announcers, so I wasn’t able to follow as many players as I had hoped.
The ones I was able to follow I tried to go into a little bit more depth.
Friday, September 19, 2014
Charlottetown Islanders vs. Cape Breton Screaming Eagles - September 19th 2014
I tried to watch as many of the draft eligible players that I
could but with 14 eligible players on the two rosters that just wasn’t going to
happen. So I tried to highlight guys that are either the top prospects or stood
out in one way or another.
Friday, September 5, 2014
Top 20 for the 2015 NHL Draft
I have decided to double my output from the previous two
draft rankings bringing you my top 20 players for the 2015 draft. I chose to
include more players as I want to cover as many players as possible over the
course of the season. I understand more player’s means more reading which can
get time consuming. I tried to structure this in a way that you can read it in
parts and come back to it if necessary.
Monday, September 1, 2014
Sonny Milano CHL vs. NCAA
As you may know Sonny Milano, Columbus’ first round pick
this past draft, has decided to play in the CHL for the Plymouth Whalers,
foregoing the chance to play for Boston College in the NCAA. I'm not here to
discuss what option is better for development of the player. That is a very
difficult question to answer. Players have failed and succeeded going each
route. What I want to look at is the effect it has on the NHL team.
The biggest positive for the Blue Jackets is that they are
now able to start contract talks and hopefully get Milano signed to an entry
level deal soon. As of this writing talks have begun but nothing official has
been signed yet.
That may not seem like such a big deal but consider this,
Columbus now controls Sonny’s rights for three full NHL seasons. What I mean by
that is now Milano has basically given away his negotiation power which a very
good thing for the Blue Jackets. How entry level contracts (ELCs) work are
based off of the age of when the player signs. Players 18-21 can be signed for
3 seasons, 22-23 year olds for 2 seasons, 24 year olds for 1 season and no
restrictions on any player 25 years and older. The CHL allows players to stay
in the league until their age 20 season. So Milano is only eligible to play two
more seasons in Plymouth. When his age 20 season is over his only option to
continue to play a high level of hockey is to sign with the Blue Jackets. The
Jackets have all the leverage in this situation. They also are able to avoid
the situation that happened in Calgary with Johnny Gaudreau.
Calgary’s situation with Gaudreau is one teams hope to
avoid. Gaudreau was Calgary’s fourth round pick in 2011. He was drafted out of
the USHL and then went to play three seasons at Boston College. He signed his
entry level deal with the Flames this year when his season at BC was over. He
made his NHL debut on the last day of the season for the Flames. That one game
burned a whole year off of his ELC. Calgary now only controls his rights for
two more seasons.
Gaudreau used that one game as serious negotiation leverage
with the Flames. Essentially he wanted to play in the NHL or he would leave for
another team. Calgary was able to avoid what happened with Chicago and Kevin
Hayes. I expect Hayes did a similar thing to Gaudreau and said play me in the
NHL or I walk, and Chicago held their ground and he left, signing with the
Rangers this off-season.
This option isn’t really a bad one for the players. Essentially,
Hayes was an unrestricted free agent; he took away the one thing the NHL does
to keep salaries down. He was able to talk to 29 other teams rather than just
the Blackhawks. From an economic standpoint that’s the only reason the draft
exists, to limit the negotiation power of players to keep salaries down.
Salaries are other side of this coin. Not only did Calgary
lose a year of control with Gaudreau they also had to pay a higher price to
sign him. Gaudreau signed for the maximum rookie salary of $925,000, and received
a performance bonus of $925,000 bringing the average annual value (AAV) of his
deal to $1,850,000. From my understanding the AAV counts against the cap. I
haven’t researched this but I would expect that, Gaudreau’s AAV is the one of
the highest for a 4th round pick and much higher than a fourth round
pick from the CHL. However Calgary likely got a good deal, had Gaudreau become
a free agent he would have received significantly more.
I have a hunch that players who go the NCAA route on average
make more on their ELCs than players who go the CHL route, because of the
possibility of becoming unrestricted. Take for example Justin Schultz.
Schultz was a second round pick of the Ducks in 2008. He played
one additional season in BCHL after being drafted then played three seasons at
the University of Wisconsin. He chose not to sign with the Ducks opting to head
to the open market where he signed his ELC with Edmonton. He received the
maximum rookie salary of $925,000 but also included in that deal was $2,850,000
in performance bonuses, bringing the total salary to $3,775,000. Taking a look
at few notable players from that second round; Slava Voynov, Roman Josi, Derek
Stepan and Travis Hamonic, not one signed for more than a million dollars.
These are obviously cherry picked examples, but it’s clear Schultz’s deal is
the exception not the norm. I plan to do more research this further to see if
my hunch is correct.
For comparison Hayes signed with the Rangers for two seasons
at a comparable rate to Schultz; $3,750,000.
Bringing this back to Columbus and Milano, they avoid all
this potential mess. Columbus does not have to worry about Milano getting
anywhere near unrestricted status, thus limiting his salary significantly. I
would expect Milano to sign a deal similar to other players of his draft
stature (16th overall selection). The average ELC AAV of the 16th
overall selection from 2005-2013 was $1,301,563, ranging from Colton Gillies on
the low end ($1,041,667) to Vladimir Tarasenko on the high end ($1,750,000).
Jarmo Kekalainen and the Blue Jackets front office should be
very excited that Sonny Milano chose the CHL over the NCAA. They are able to
negotiate with Milano and likely will get him signed sooner rather than later.
They will be able to control his rights for three seasons at a price much lower
than would be expected of an NCAA player. If Milano reaches his potential and
becomes the player people expect, he would provide a surplus of value to the
Blue Jackets. So while the decision to forgo Boston College and play for the
Plymouth Whalers may not make much of a difference for the development of
Milano, it has a HUGE impact on the future of the Columbus Blue Jackets.
Saturday, August 16, 2014
The Future Isn’t Always Brighter
It’s quite clear that Philadelphia needs help on defence.
This has been their issue as a team for a while now. Having lost Kimmo Timonen
for a significant period of time doesn’t help, also employing Andrew Macdonald
who is one of the worst defenders in the league, doesn’t help either.
The typical cliché is always the future looks bright, and I can
see why fans in Philadelphia would think that way. In the previous two drafts
it was clear that Paul Holmgren and Ron Hextall put an emphasis on selecting
defencemen. The Flyers selected seven defencemen
with their 12 picks in the last two seasons, including three of four in round
one and two. It’s those selections that I want to focus on in this post,
notably the first round selections: Travis Sanheim and Samuel Morin.
Fear Fin aka Derek Tanabe (@fearthefin)
said it the best on the Logoff Podcast,
the Flyers “seem to be trying to find the next Chris Pronger.” While there is nothing wrong with that idea, the problem is I'm not
sure Flyers understand what Pronger was as a junior player. He was a point
producing guy who likely played the toughest competition and was someone people
knew about. Taking a look at Sanhiem and Morin I'm not either one of them do
any of those things.
Inability to create
offence
Chris Pronger played two seasons in the CHL for the
Peterborough Petes. In those two seasons he put up 62 points in 63 games and 77
points in 61 games respectively. He quite obviously had offensive talents.
Sanheim has only the one season in the WHL in which he put
up 29 points in 67 games (0.43ppg). Morin has three seasons in the QMJHL. His
first season he had just 8 points in 62 games (0.13ppg), his second/draft
season he had 16 points in 46 games (0.35ppg) and his third season he had 31
points in 54 games (0.57ppg).
Both players fall below the 0.6 “rule” but that doesn’t necessarily
mean instant failure. In a follow up post to his one on CHL defencemen, Rhys
posted this graph, breaking down the defencemen by draft position and by
scorers or non-scorers.
Sanheim and Morin both fall into the non-scorers section. As
top 25 picks they have about a 41% chance of becoming NHL regulars. While
better to pick a scorer early, non-scorers aren’t totally doomed if picked
high.
Quality of Competition
The big reason why I believe non-scorers make it is because of
quality of competition. The non-scorers are likely the guys playing the tough competition
causing point totals to be lower. With that being said QOC is not perfect. Just
because one player plays tougher competition doesn’t mean he's a good player
and just because a player plays poor competition it doesn’t mean he's a bad
player. What I interpret it as, especially at the CHL level, is how much trust
or faith the coach has in the player. Coaches are not stupid. They know what
guys can handle the tough minutes and what players need sheltering.
I would expect Sanheim, and Morin, given their reputations
as defensive defencemen they would be the ones that their respective teams
relied upon to handle the tough minutes. That would at least partially explain
the low point totals. I also expect both players to be a major part of their respective
team’s penalty kill units rather than their power-play units, another factor
which would deflate offense.
Muneeb Alam of Jaspers Rink has
done some excellent work using the method laid out by Eric Tulsky (recently
hired by unidentified NHL team), to estimate quality of competition and time on ice
for CHL players. He has data from the 2010-11 to 2013-14 seasons, which conveniently
covers Sanheim’s and Morin’s CHL careers.
The data is divided into sections based on opposing forwards
and defenders. The size of the bubble indicates estimated time one ice and
colour represents position (blue for forwards, yellow for defencemen). The data
is very noisy which is why the numbers are not as important but rather the
order of the players. That is why I am only going to use these on a team by
team basis rather than by leagues and across leagues.
For a complete explanation
on this check out Muneeb’s post.
*Data is for even strength only*
Morin 2011-2012
Small circle indicates low time on ice and appears to be the
6th defender in terms of competition level. Not surprising as a
rookie it’s expected that he will need time to adjustment.
Morin 2012-2013 (Draft Season)
Larger circle indicating he received more ice time. It looks like he played the fourth toughest competition,
likely on the second pair.
Morin 2013-2014
Again playing fourth toughest competition, but looks to have
a circle at a comparable level to the other three, could be the top pair
defencemen here but it’s not clear looking at this graph.
Luckily Extraskater.com has CHL data for the 2013-2014
season, and it can help shed some light on this situation. Looking at their numbers
Morin did indeed face the fourth toughest competition; they also estimate Morin
to have played the most minutes at even strength among Rimouski defencemen.
On the special teams’ area of the game, Extraskater
estimated that Morin was one the three primary defencemen used on the power-play
for Rimouski, Morin however was the least used of the three. On the penalty
kill, an area that Morin should be expect to be see heavy use, he was not one
of the three heavily used defencemen. He was a distant fourth which to me looks
like he received second unit penalty kill time at 4-5 and minimal time at 3-5.
Sanheim 2013-2014 (Draft Season)
Sanheim has only played one season in the WHL. From the
graph it looks like he played some of the weakest competition on the Hitman.
His TOI looks similar to the others maybe a tad smaller but not by much.
Taking a look at Extraskaters page for Hitman defencemen
shows that Sanheim did indeed play some of the weakest competition on the team
as he ranked 6th among Hitman defencemen who played at least 36
games. He also is estimated to have played the fewest minutes at even strength
meaning he was likely a third pair guy.
On special teams Sanheim appears to have received second
unit power-play time. On the penalty kill, an area we would expect him to get a
ton of ice time, he received the lowest amount of time among the d-core.
Coming
from Obscurity
Pronger was on the CHL all-rookie team his first season and
followed that up being the CHL’s best defencemen in his second. It’s clear he
was a player people knew about.
Sanheim and Morin took different routes in becoming first
round picks. Looking at Central Scouting’s reports they had Sanheim ranked as
167th North American skater in their mid-term report. In their final
ranking he had shot up all the way to 53rd before being ultimately
drafted at 17. Morin had a similar rise but not quite as substantial as
Sanheim. Morin ranked 76th in Central Scouting 2013 mid-term report,
and climbed 53 spots up to 23rd in the final ranking. He of course ended
up being selected at 11.
Sanheim’s rise is understandable as he was a relative
unknown entering his first WHL season. What was talked about the most for his
rise in the rankings was his huge performance at the Under 18’s where he put up
6 points in 7 games and was regarded as Canada’s best defencemen. That capped
off what was a great second half for Sanheim, take a look as his season
splits.
September-December (32 games)
1 goal 7 assists 8 points
(0.25 ppg)
January-March (35 games)
4 goals 17 assists 21 points (0.6
ppg)
Morin’s rise is a little bit more unexpected. He missed the
final month of his draft season with an upper body injury. Injuries usually
tend to drop players in rankings. He also didn’t have the greatest Under 18
tournament only putting up two points in seven games. What likely caught people’s
attention was his play in the playoffs. Morin had seven points in six games as
Rimouski lost to Gatineau.
Players obviously shouldn’t be judged on small samples like
short tournaments and playoff series’ but it does happen. That is why I view
Sanheim’s rise as more legitimate as he had shown at least a half season of
solid performance, which again isn’t the largest of samples but it is better
than a six game playoff series.
Conclusion
Neither Travis Sanheim nor Samuel Morin are going to be the
next Chris Pronger for the Flyers. They don’t have the offensive production
that you see from future NHL players. Both received second unit power-play time,
so the opportunity to put up points was there. Neither played the toughest competition on their
respective teams. This particularly key for Morin as he is in his third year in
the QMJHL, he has had time to learn the league and the players. He should be
guy who plays the tough minutes. Sanheim gets a bit of a break as he was a WHL
rookie who needed some time to get adjusted to the new league. Neither player
had much opportunity on the penalty kill which is surprising seeing as both
have the reputation of being shutdown defensive defencemen.
At their current
rate I don’t either player is going to have much of an impact in the NHL
without a significant adjustment. Both are going to have to prove they can
handle the toughest minutes in junior, as well as be the go to guys on the
penalty kill. It would also be helpful if they could take advantage of their power
play time and put up some more points. They need to show that they can play at
both ends of the ice. Until then though I don’t think either player has much of
an NHL future.
Sunday, August 10, 2014
Quick Scout – Canada vs Czech Republic x2
In the final game of the Summer Development Camp, Team
Canada had their first loss, losing to the Czechs 5-2. This game was very entertaining
and did not have the feel of a summer exhibition game.
Scoring Chances
Domi – Petan – Chase 0-1-1
Ritchie – McDavid – Point 0-2-0
Klimchuk – Fabbri – Nastasiuk 0-4-0
Bennett – Horvat – Perlini 2-1-0
Bigras – Heatherington 1-0
Harpur – Bowey 0-0
Sanheim – Mori n 0-0
Conner McDavid and Robbi Fabbi were incredible in this game.
Combined they had six of Canada’s 12 chances at even strength. It was clear
they were the guys the coaches wanted out there as they were playing basically
every third shift in the second period. They both displayed their excellent
skill level and great speed. Unfortunately early in the third Fabbri was hit
hard at the blueline buy Czech defender Marek Baranek, which knocked him out of
the game. After that hit the game really took a turn for the worse as Canada
seemed much more intent on getting back at the Czechs for that hit rather than
try to come back from the 5-2 deficit.
Canada had 79 penalty minutes in this game coming on 22 infractions.
They gave the Czechs 11 power plays in this game, with most coming in the third
period. Nick Ritchie and Max Domi were the most aggressive in the period, as
both received 10 minute misconducts for checks to the head. It was good to see
the intensity especially in a game in August and luckily none of the players
went too far as the IIHF can suspend players from summer games.
Canada wrapped up the development camp going 3-1 in four
games. This camp didn’t change much for me in terms of who I think should make
the team. I still like the roster I posted last week. Obviously things can
change throughout the course of the season depending on who makes the NHL and
who plays well/poor for their CHL clubs. If this camp is any indication of what
to expect, December can’t come soon enough.
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